The United States and a coalition of states sued Live Nation Entertainment and Ticketmaster in Manhattan federal court in May 2024, alleging that they monopolized primary ticketing and amphitheater markets. After the Department of Justice (DOJ) settled mid-trial, a jury found for 33 states and the District of Columbia on every claim on April 15, 2026. Live Nation’s post-trial motions and the court’s Tunney Act review of the DOJ settlement are pending.
Latest development Oct 21, 2026
On October 21, 2026, Live Nation amended its Tunney Act disclosure to confirm that President Trump briefly attended the March 5, 2026, meeting that finalized the settlement terms. The filing also added detail about a February 2026 phone call between Trump and Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino. The court has not yet ruled on the Tunney Act review, the states’ discovery requests, or Live Nation’s post-trial motions.
Why it matters
The case will decide whether Live Nation must divest Ticketmaster or amphitheaters, which could change how concert tickets are sold and priced across the United States. It also tests whether states can win structural relief at trial after a federal enforcer settles for behavioral commitments.
Background
Live Nation Entertainment and its ticketing subsidiary Ticketmaster have faced antitrust scrutiny since their 2010 merger. The pressure intensified after problems with the 2022 Ticketmaster presale for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour drew national attention to the company’s dominance. On May 23, 2024, the Department of Justice (DOJ) sued Live Nation and Ticketmaster under the Sherman Act in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Dozens of state attorneys general, led by New York, joined the suit. The plaintiffs accuse the companies of monopolizing primary ticketing and amphitheater markets and illegally tying venue access to Live Nation’s promotion business.
On March 14, 2025, the court denied Live Nation’s motion to dismiss, and on February 18, 2026, it partly granted motions for summary judgment and to exclude expert testimony. Trial opened on March 2, 2026, before U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian. In March 2026, the DOJ agreed mid-trial to a proposed consent decree that relies on behavioral commitments, divests long-term booking agreements for 13 amphitheaters, and leaves Ticketmaster inside Live Nation. Former DOJ antitrust officials who had led the case criticized the deal. A coalition of 33 states and the District of Columbia declined to accept the settlement and continued to trial alone, with Jeffrey Kessler of Winston & Strawn as lead counsel.
On April 15, 2026, the jury found the companies liable on every claim submitted, for monopolizing primary ticketing and amphitheaters and illegally tying amphitheater access to promotion services. It also found a $1.72 overcharge on every primary ticket sold, but that finding applies only to the 22 jurisdictions that reached the damages question. The states seek divestiture of Ticketmaster, amphitheater sell-offs, damages, and penalties in a remedies phase that still lies ahead. In July 2026, Live Nation moved for judgment as a matter of law and for a new trial, and the court heard the motions on July 29, 2026. Live Nation argues that the verdict was against the weight of the evidence, that out-of-market evidence swayed the jury, and that the damages testimony was unreliable.
On June 12, 2026, the DOJ filed a proposed final judgment for public-interest review under the Tunney Act, with a decision expected in the fall. On August 4, 2026, the court denied the states’ request for discovery into the settlement without prejudice and invited narrow, targeted requests. On September 4, 2026, the litigating states filed a public comment arguing that the settlement is vague, is not reasonably calculated to restore competition, and could further entrench Ticketmaster. The same day, Representatives Raskin and Nadler wrote to the DOJ’s Acting Chief about the comment process, and House Judiciary Committee Democrats urged the court to scrutinize the deal further. On October 2, 2026, Live Nation opposed a renewed state discovery request as unduly burdensome. On October 21, 2026, it amended its Tunney Act disclosure to confirm that President Trump briefly attended the March 5, 2026, meeting that finalized the settlement terms. Both the Tunney Act review and the post-trial motions remain pending.
Timeline 17 events
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FilingLive Nation amends disclosure to confirm Trump attended settlement talks
Live Nation filed an amended Tunney Act disclosure confirming that President Trump was briefly present at the March 5, 2026, meeting where the DOJ settlement terms were finalized. The filing also added detail about a February 2026 call between Trump and CEO Michael Rapino concerning the case.
Live Nation tells court Trump 'briefly appeared' at meeting where terms of its DOJ antitrust settlement were finalizedLive Nation Confirms Trump Attended DOJ Settlement Meeting in Amended Tunney Act FilingLive Nation Reveals Trump Attended White House Antitrust Settlement Meeting
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OrderLive Nation opposes states’ renewed discovery bid on DOJ deal
Live Nation filed an opposition in New York federal court to a renewed request by state attorneys general for discovery into the negotiation of its DOJ antitrust settlement. It called the request unduly burdensome.
Live Nation Fights States' Latest Bid For Insight Into DOJ DealLive Nation Pushes Back As States Seek Details Behind DOJ Antitrust SettlementLive Nation Pushes Back on States' Renewed Bid for DOJ Settlement Records
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FilingLitigating states file Tunney Act comment opposing DOJ settlement
The states pursuing the case at trial filed a Tunney Act public comment opposing the DOJ settlement. They argued it is vague, is not reasonably calculated to restore competition, and could further entrench Ticketmaster’s market position.
State AGs Say DOJ's Live Nation Settlement Could Make Ticketmaster More Powerful
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OrderHouse Judiciary Democrats press DOJ on Live Nation settlement comments
Representatives Raskin and Nadler wrote to the Department of Justice’s Acting Chief about the Tunney Act public-comment process. House Judiciary Committee Democrats also publicly urged the court to scrutinize the settlement further.
September 4, 2026 Letter to Mr. David Teslicko, Acting ChiefJudiciary Democrats Challenge DOJ's Live Nation-Ticketmaster Settlement, Urge Court to Investigate Trump Administration's Backroom DealRaskin, Nadler Urge Judge to Probe 'Corrupt and Improper' Influence Behind Live Nation Settlement
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OrderCourt denies states’ Tunney Act discovery request without prejudice
The court held that Tunney Act discovery is available “within reasonable bounds” and invited the states to return with narrow, targeted requests.
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HearingCourt hears Live Nation’s post-trial motions to overturn verdict
Live Nation sought judgment as a matter of law or, alternatively, a new trial.
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FilingLive Nation moves for judgment as a matter of law and a new trial
Live Nation asked the court to overturn the verdict or, alternatively, grant a new trial, arguing the jury was swayed by out-of-market evidence and unreliable damages testimony.
Live Nation asks judge to overturn monopoly verdict, or grant new trial
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FilingDOJ files proposed final judgment formalizing Live Nation settlement
The Department of Justice filed a proposed final judgment formalizing the terms of its March 2026 settlement with Live Nation and Ticketmaster. The filing preceded Tunney Act review.
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OtherLive Nation vows to fight the verdict
Hours after the verdict, Live Nation said it would challenge the jury’s findings through post-trial motions and appeal.
Live Nation Responds to Monopoly Verdict With Defiance, Vows to Fight Jury Findings
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OtherJury’s $1.72 overcharge finding covers only 22 of 34 jurisdictions
The verdict form found that the conduct of Live Nation and Ticketmaster harmed competition in all 34 plaintiff jurisdictions. The $1.72 per-ticket overcharge finding applied only to the 22 jurisdictions that reached the damages question.
Live Nation and Ticketmaster Found Liable for Antitrust Violations by Federal JuryFederal Jury Finds Live Nation and Ticketmaster Act as Monopoly in Antitrust TrialTicketmaster-Live Nation monopoly verdict impact on ticket pricesTicketmaster, Live Nation lose landmark monopoly case; judge now weighs penalties
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JudgmentJury finds consumers overcharged $1.72 per ticket
The verdict form found a $1.72 overcharge on every primary concert ticket sold as a result of the anticompetitive conduct. That finding applied only in the 22 jurisdictions that reached the damages question.
After the Verdict: Navigating the Live Nation/Ticketmaster Antitrust Fallout
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JudgmentJury finds for the states on every federal and state claim
After a five-week trial, the jury found unlawful monopolization of primary ticketing services and amphitheaters and unlawful tying of amphitheaters to concert promotion. It also found a $1.72 per-ticket overcharge in 22 of the 34 jurisdictions.
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HearingTrial opens in Manhattan federal court
The antitrust trial against Live Nation and Ticketmaster began before Judge Arun Subramanian in the Southern District of New York.
After the Verdict: Navigating the Live Nation/Ticketmaster Antitrust Fallout
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SettlementDOJ settles mid-trial as states continue the case alone
The proposed consent decree requires multi-vendor ticketing access and opens amphitheaters to outside promoters for up to half of inventory. It divests long-term booking agreements for 13 amphitheaters and caps ticketing service fees at 15%, but leaves Ticketmaster inside Live Nation.
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OrderCourt rules in part on summary judgment and expert exclusion motions
Judge Subramanian granted in part and denied in part motions for summary judgment and to exclude expert testimony ahead of trial.
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OrderCourt denies Live Nation’s motion to dismiss
Judge Subramanian issued an opinion allowing the federal and state antitrust claims to proceed to discovery.
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FilingDOJ and 30 states sue Live Nation and Ticketmaster for monopolization
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will the court rule on Live Nation’s motions for judgment as a matter of law and a new trial by March 31, 2027?
- Court denies Live Nation’s motions50%
- Court grants Live Nation partial relief17%
- Still pending on March 31, 202717%
- Court voids verdict or orders new trial8%
- Live Nation settles with the states8%
- Resolves by
- Mar 31, 2027in 5 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The court will most likely deny Live Nation’s post-trial motions by March 31, 2027 (50%). Courts rarely overturn jury verdicts, and the liability findings across all claims followed a ruling that let the claims go to trial. Partial relief on the damages findings is the main alternative.
How it resolves. Resolves on the S.D.N.Y. docket in case 1:24-cv-03973-AS. “Denies” means the court denies both motions in full and leaves the April 15, 2026, liability and damages findings intact. “Partial relief” means the court upholds liability on at least one claim but grants judgment, a new trial, or remittitur on some claim, market, or damages finding. “Voids verdict or orders new trial” means the court enters judgment for Live Nation on all claims or orders a new trial on liability for all claims. “Settles” means Live Nation and the litigating states publicly announce a settlement before any ruling on the motions. “Still pending” means none of these occurred by March 31, 2027.
Reasoning
Starting point. Post-trial Rule 50(b) and Rule 59 motions after federal civil jury verdicts, including antitrust verdicts: Federal district courts grant full judgment as a matter of law or a new trial after jury verdicts in roughly 5% to 10% of cases. Partial relief on damages is somewhat more common.
District courts seldom set aside jury verdicts under Rule 50(b) or Rule 59, with full grants in perhaps 5% to 10% of cases. The verdict here covered every submitted claim. The court also screened the claims and experts at summary judgment in February 2026, which narrows Live Nation’s room to argue legal insufficiency. Live Nation’s strongest points target the damages testimony and the $1.72 overcharge limited to 22 jurisdictions, so partial relief or remittitur on damages is the leading alternative at 17%. A ruling has been pending three months since the July 29, 2026, hearing. The court is also handling the Tunney Act review and discovery fights, which keeps a 17% chance the motions remain undecided by March 31, 2027. Settlement stays low because the states rejected the DOJ’s behavioral deal and seek a Ticketmaster divestiture. The previous forecast asked the same question, and nothing in the record since October 8, 2026, moved any outcome by five points. The October filings concern the Tunney Act review, not the post-trial motions.
Low base rate for overturning federal jury verdicts · Verdict for states on every submitted claim · Damages testimony is Live Nation’s strongest post-trial target · Parallel Tunney Act review may slow the court’s ruling · States’ push for divestiture limits near-term settlement
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 29, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made