X Corp. and SpaceXAI LLC (formerly xAI) allege in Texas federal court that Apple and OpenAI unlawfully agreed to lock rival chatbots such as Grok out of the iPhone. After the plaintiffs dismissed their claims against Apple with prejudice in September 2026, OpenAI moved for summary judgment, which the plaintiffs opposed on October 21, 2026. A four-week jury trial is set for January 11, 2027.
Latest development Oct 21, 2026
On October 21, 2026, X Corp. and SpaceXAI opposed OpenAI’s motion for summary judgment. They argue that factual disputes over whether the Apple-ChatGPT deal is exclusive and has foreclosed competition must be resolved by a jury. The motion remains pending, and the January 11, 2027, trial date stands.
Why it matters
The case will decide whether an exclusive deal to build one chatbot into the iPhone can unlawfully foreclose rival AI developers under federal and Texas antitrust law. The outcome will affect how AI developers negotiate default integrations and App Store placement with smartphone makers.
Background
On August 25, 2025, Elon Musk’s X Corp. and xAI sued Apple Inc. and OpenAI, Inc. in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, in Fort Worth. They accuse the companies of an unlawful agreement that locks rival AI chatbots such as Grok out of the iPhone. The complaint challenges Apple’s integration of ChatGPT as the exclusive default generative AI assistant inside Apple Intelligence, and App Store ranking practices that allegedly disadvantage competing chatbot apps. The plaintiffs claim violations of Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act and the Texas Free Enterprise and Antitrust Act. They argue that the arrangement forecloses competition in two markets at once (smartphones and AI chatbots) and seek billions of dollars in damages plus injunctive relief.
On September 30, 2025, Apple and OpenAI moved to dismiss, arguing that the complaint failed to state a viable antitrust claim. They also sought to transfer the case out of Fort Worth. On October 19, 2025, Judge Mark T. Pittman denied the transfer bid and kept the case in the Fort Worth Division. According to press accounts, he suggested the defendants could relocate operations to the district if venue was a concern. On November 13, 2025, he denied the motions to dismiss in full, allowing the antitrust claims to proceed to discovery.
Discovery disputes over email production reached Musk’s other companies, SpaceX and Tesla, and the court ordered disclosure of some of their emails. X Corp. also accused Apple and OpenAI of “opportunism” in seeking certain depositions. On April 16, 2026, the court granted OpenAI’s motion to move the four-week jury trial from October 19, 2026, to January 11, 2027. The amended schedule set dispositive motions for September 15, 2026, and the pretrial order for December 14, 2026. Apple and OpenAI are also litigating a separate trade-secret suit that Apple filed against OpenAI in mid-2026.
In August 2026, the court amended the caption to reflect xAI’s renaming as SpaceXAI LLC and denied the Washington Free Beacon’s motion to intervene and unseal records. On September 3, 2026, the Free Beacon appealed the unsealing ruling to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. On September 14, 2026, X Corp. and SpaceXAI voluntarily dismissed their claims against Apple with prejudice, stating that they had been resolved, and the court granted the dismissal. On September 17, 2026, the court reviewed the confidential settlement agreement in camera and denied OpenAI’s emergency motion to compel its disclosure, finding nothing relevant to the remaining claims. On September 22, 2026, OpenAI moved for summary judgment on the remaining claims against it and OpenAI OpCo, LLC, which are set for trial on January 11, 2027. X Corp. and SpaceXAI opposed the motion on October 21, 2026, and it remains pending.
Timeline 15 events
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Scheduled hearingJury trial scheduled to begin in Fort Worth
Under the amended scheduling order, the four-week jury trial is set to begin on January 11, 2027, in Fort Worth.
X Corp. suit against Apple over anticompetitive agreements set for Oct 2026 US trial
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FilingX Corp. and SpaceXAI oppose OpenAI’s summary judgment bid
X Corp. and SpaceXAI urged the court not to grant OpenAI summary judgment. They argued that disputes over the exclusivity and market effects of the Apple-ChatGPT integration are factual questions for a jury.
X Says OpenAI Can't Nix IPhone Placement Antitrust CaseX Corp. opposes OpenAI motion for judgment on US antitrust claims
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FilingOpenAI moves for summary judgment on remaining claims
OpenAI asked the court to rule in its favor on the remaining claims without trial. It cited SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO registration statement and other discovery evidence as contradicting xAI’s claims of competitive harm.
OpenAI Seeks Dismissal of Musk’s AI Antitrust Case, Citing SpaceX SEC FilingsOpenAI says SEC disclosures undermine xAI's antitrust lawsuitOpenAI Seeks Summary Judgment in xAI Case
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OrderJudge denies OpenAI’s bid to see confidential Apple settlement terms
Judge Mark T. Pittman reviewed the settlement agreement between Apple and X Corp. and SpaceXAI in camera. He denied OpenAI’s emergency motion to compel disclosure, ruling that it contained nothing relevant to the claims pending against OpenAI.
Judge rejects OpenAI's bid to see X's confidential settlement with Apple in antitrust lawsuitApple's settlement with Musk's X stays secret as judge denies OpenAI's bidJudge blocks OpenAI from seeing Apple's confidential settlement with Elon Musk's X Corp and SpaceXAI
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OrderX Corp. and SpaceXAI voluntarily dismiss claims against Apple with prejudice
The plaintiffs stated that the claims had been resolved, and Judge Pittman granted the motion. No settlement terms were disclosed, and claims against OpenAI and OpenAI OpCo remained pending in the same case.
X and SpaceXAI have filed a motion to voluntarily dismiss their claims against AppleX Corp. and SpaceXAI drop antitrust claims against Apple, keep suing OpenAIElon Musk's X, SpaceXAI Resolve Apple Antitrust Claims
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AppealWashington Free Beacon appeals unsealing denial to Fifth Circuit
The Free Beacon challenged the district court’s August 26, 2026, denial of its motion to intervene and unseal judicial records. The appeal was docketed as No. 26-10819.
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OrderCourt denies the Washington Free Beacon’s motion to intervene and unseal records
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OrderCourt amends the caption to reflect xAI’s renaming as SpaceXAI LLC
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OrderCourt moves trial to January 11, 2027, on OpenAI’s motion
The court moved the trial from October 19, 2026. The amended scheduling order set dispositive motions for September 15, 2026, and the pretrial order for December 14, 2026.
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OrderX Corp. opposes Apple and OpenAI deposition bid
X Corp. accused Apple and OpenAI of “opportunism” in seeking certain depositions as the case moved toward trial.
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OrderCourt orders disclosure of some SpaceX and Tesla emails
The discovery fight over communications extended to Musk’s other companies. The order covered emails relevant to the OpenAI-Apple dispute.
Musk to Disclose Some SpaceX, Tesla Emails in iPhone, OpenAI Row
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OrderJudge denies Apple’s and OpenAI’s motions to dismiss
The ruling allowed the antitrust claims to proceed toward discovery.
Apple, OpenAI Can't Yet Nix XAI Antitrust Suit, Judge SaysApple and OpenAI Must Remain in Court Over X Corp's Lawsuit, U.S. Judge Rules
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OrderJudge keeps the case in Fort Worth
Judge Pittman denied a bid to transfer venue, ruling the case would stay in the Fort Worth division and reportedly suggesting the defendants could relocate operations to the district instead.
X lawsuit vs. Apple and OpenAI stays in Fort Worth, Texas; judge suggests they move there
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FilingApple and OpenAI move to dismiss
Apple and OpenAI filed motions to dismiss the antitrust complaint, arguing the claims were legally deficient.
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FilingX Corp. and xAI sue Apple and OpenAI under antitrust law
The plaintiffs filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, in Fort Worth.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will X Corp. and SpaceXAI’s antitrust claims against OpenAI stand on June 30, 2027?
- OpenAI defeats the claims35%
- Still pending on June 30, 202729%
- X and SpaceXAI settle or drop suit20%
- Jury finds OpenAI liable16%
- Resolves by
- Jun 30, 2027in 8 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
OpenAI defeating the claims by June 30, 2027, is the most likely single outcome, at 35%. OpenAI’s fully briefed summary judgment motion attacks foreclosure and harm with evidence including SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO registration statement. A January 11, 2027, trial keeps a decisive ruling or verdict likely within the window.
How it resolves. Resolves on public court records as of June 30, 2027. “OpenAI defeats the claims” if the district court grants summary judgment or judgment as a matter of law on all remaining claims against OpenAI, Inc. and OpenAI OpCo, LLC, or a jury returns a verdict for OpenAI on all claims. “Jury finds OpenAI liable” if a jury verdict finds OpenAI liable on at least one federal or Texas antitrust claim, regardless of post-trial motions or appeal. “X and SpaceXAI settle or drop suit” if all remaining claims against OpenAI are dismissed by stipulation, voluntary dismissal, or announced settlement before any verdict or dispositive judgment. “Still pending” if none of these has occurred, including where partial summary judgment leaves some claims for a trial not yet concluded.
Reasoning
Starting point. Federal Sherman Act exclusive-dealing and monopolization cases that survive dismissal and reach a defense summary judgment motion with a firm trial date: Defendants win summary judgment in roughly 40% to 50% of contested federal antitrust motions. Most surviving cases settle, and plaintiffs win a minority of antitrust jury trials.
This asks the same question as the October 6, 2026, forecast. The only new development, the plaintiffs’ October 21 opposition, was expected and does not move any outcome by five points. Defendants win summary judgment in a large share of contested antitrust motions, and exclusive-dealing claims require proof of substantial foreclosure, which is hard to show against a nascent chatbot market. OpenAI’s citation of SpaceX’s own IPO disclosures as contradicting competitive harm strengthens its motion. Against that, the court denied the motions to dismiss in full, and the plaintiffs frame exclusivity and market effects as fact disputes for a jury. If the case reaches trial in January, a verdict would likely come by mid-February 2027, and plaintiffs win a minority of antitrust jury trials. Settlement is plausible because the plaintiffs resolved their claims against Apple in September 2026, but the parties’ broader rivalry may dampen it. The leading alternative is that the case remains open on June 30, 2027, because of a continuance, a partial ruling, or a delayed trial.
Pending OpenAI summary judgment motion on foreclosure and harm · SpaceX IPO disclosures cited against claimed competitive harm · Firm January 11, 2027 trial date in a fast-moving court · Apple settlement removes co-defendant and may signal resolution appetite · Antitrust plaintiffs’ modest record at jury trial
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 27, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made
Disclosure: Anthropic, which makes the model that wrote this forecast, competes with or has commercial ties to a party to this case.