Devas v. Antrix / India: $1.3B+ Investor–State

The 15-year fight over India’s canceled Devas–Antrix satellite spectrum deal has become the world’s leading test of whether an arbitral award annulled at its seat can still be enforced abroad, with the U.S. Supreme Court, Dutch Supreme Court, English Court of Appeal and High Court of Australia all ruling within thirteen months.

LATEST DEVELOPMENT · JUL 7, 2026

The English Court of Appeal held on 7 July 2026 ([2026] EWCA Civ 797) that India’s ratification of the New York Convention did not waive its state immunity from proceedings to enforce the Mauritius BIT awards, aligning England with Australia’s High Court ruling of April 2026. The claimants’ remaining waiver arguments continue. The revived U.S. confirmation case remains pending in the Ninth Circuit after March 2026 argument.

PREDICTED OUTCOME

AI-GENERATED · METHODOLOGY →

Split outcome ~55% likely HORIZON: late 2027 to 2029 CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

The most likely end state, at roughly 55 percent, is a materially split global result running through 2027 to 2029: the Dutch judgment stands and the US confirmation is probably revived in some form, while India keeps winning on immunity in London and Canberra and pays nothing voluntarily. The strongest driver is India’s posture, not the law: with Devas wound up for fraud, criminal cases running and no legislative fix available as there was for Cairn, no Indian government has domestic cover to write a cheque on this award. Expect the Ninth Circuit to accept the Supreme Court’s jurisdictional holding and reject the Fifth Amendment and forum non conveniens fallbacks, then send the Article V(1)(e) annulment question back to W.D. Washington, where US comity doctrine leans toward deferring to the New Delhi set-aside unless the claimants can replicate the Dutch due-process findings. That single issue is where the headline $1.29 billion judgment most plausibly dies, which is why a clean claimant win is unlikely even after a 9-0 win at the Supreme Court. Realistic cash recovery for the Mauritian shareholders over the forecast period is tens of millions to a few hundred million from attachments of Antrix and Indian state-linked receivables, against a $1.3 billion plus book claim, with the roughly $111 million BIT awards largely uncollectible after the immunity rulings. The leading alternative, at about 18 percent, is a negotiated global resolution in which India buys peace at a steep discount, in the $150 million to $400 million range, bundled with withdrawal of all enforcement actions, as it eventually did with Cairn once asset seizures began to bite. A full claimant win with substantial collection, or a clean Indian sweep that extinguishes the Dutch and US judgments too, each sit near 13 percent.

India politically unable to pay an award tied to fraud findings · US comity doctrine favors deference to New Delhi annulment on remand · Dutch Supreme Court ruling final but limited attachable assets · UK and Australian immunity wins block the BIT awards · Devas in Indian liquidation complicates any negotiated payout

Generated by claude-opus-5 on Aug 4, 2026, from this case’s record only. It stands until a major development changes the record. Not legal or investment advice. How predictions are made →

BACKGROUND

In 2005, Antrix, the commercial arm of India’s space agency, leased S-band satellite spectrum to Devas Multimedia for a nationwide mobile-multimedia venture. In 2011, India annulled the contract, citing national needs. An ICC tribunal awarded Devas $562.5M plus interest in September 2015, and the Western District of Washington confirmed the award in 2020, entering judgment of about $1.29B. India then unwound the deal at home: Indian courts ordered Devas wound up for fraud, and in 2022 the Delhi High Court set the award aside. In the U.S., the Ninth Circuit vacated the confirmation for lack of ‘minimum contacts,’ but on 5 June 2025 a unanimous Supreme Court (Alito, J.) reversed, holding that the FSIA requires no minimum-contacts showing, personal jurisdiction exists whenever an immunity exception applies and service is proper. The revived case was argued on remand in the Ninth Circuit on 10 March 2026, where Antrix’s fallback defenses (Fifth Amendment due process, the arbitration exception’s scope, forum non conveniens) remain open.

Parallel enforcement has produced a global split. The Hague Court of Appeal allowed enforcement of the ICC award in December 2024 despite the Indian annulment, refusing to recognize the Indian fraud and liquidation rulings for lack of due process, and the Dutch Supreme Court upheld that decision on 6 March 2026. But India has prevailed on sovereign immunity in enforcement of the related India–Mauritius BIT awards (roughly $111M plus interest): Australia’s High Court held on 8 April 2026 ([2026] HCA 9) that ratifying the New York Convention is not a waiver of immunity, and the English Court of Appeal reached the same conclusion on 7 July 2026 ([2026] EWCA Civ 797), though other waiver arguments remain live in the English proceedings.

TIMELINE

JUL 7, 2026APPEAL

English Court of Appeal rules for India on treaty-waiver point ([2026] EWCA Civ 797)

New York Convention ratification alone does not waive immunity under the State Immunity Act. The claimants’ remaining waiver arguments continue.

Clifford Chance briefing
APR 8, 2026JUDGMENT

High Court of Australia upholds India’s immunity ([2026] HCA 9)

Ratifying the New York Convention is not a clear and unequivocal waiver of immunity. Enforcement of the ~$111M BIT award in Australia is blocked.

Morrison Foerster insight
MAR 6, 2026JUDGMENT

Dutch Supreme Court upholds enforcement despite Indian annulment

It left standing the Hague Court of Appeal’s December 2024 ruling that the Indian fraud and liquidation judgments could not be recognized for lack of procedural safeguards.

Aceris Law analysis
JUN 5, 2025JUDGMENT

U.S. Supreme Court: FSIA requires no minimum contacts

A unanimous Court (Alito, J.) held personal jurisdiction exists under the FSIA when an immunity exception applies and service is proper, reviving the confirmation case. Remand argued in the Ninth Circuit on 10 March 2026.

King & Spalding alert
AUG 2023APPEAL

Ninth Circuit vacates U.S. confirmation for lack of minimum contacts

Opinion amended February 2024. The shareholders sought Supreme Court review.
2022JUDGMENT

Indian courts order Devas liquidated and set the award aside

India’s Supreme Court upheld Devas’s winding-up on fraud findings. The Delhi High Court annulled the ICC award on fraud and public-policy grounds.

Aceris Law analysis
OCT 2020JUDGMENT

W.D. Washington confirms the award (~$1.29B with interest)

King & Spalding alert
SEP 14, 2015AWARD

ICC tribunal awards Devas $562.5M plus interest

The tribunal found Antrix wrongfully terminated the 2005 satellite spectrum agreement.

Aceris Law analysis