About 68,400 plaintiffs in a federal multidistrict litigation (MDL) in New Jersey allege that J&J’s talc-based baby powder causes ovarian cancer. In July 2026, J&J proposed a $5.5B settlement of the remaining ovarian cancer claims, conditioned on at least 95% participation. On September 14, 2026, the court kept case deadlines in abeyance while the settlement is implemented and ordered biweekly reports on claimant participation.
Latest development Sep 14, 2026
On September 14, 2026, the MDL court ordered that case deadlines remain in abeyance while the proposed $5.5B settlement is implemented. It directed negotiation counsel to file status reports on claimant participation every two weeks, starting September 15, 2026.
Why it matters
After three failed Chapter 11 filings, the case tests whether J&J can resolve tens of thousands of talc claims in the tort system. The expert-admissibility rulings and the 95% participation threshold will decide whether the proposed $5.5B deal proceeds or the claims face dismissal or trial.
Background
Plaintiffs allege that Johnson & Johnson’s (J&J) Johnson’s Baby Powder and Shower to Shower were contaminated with asbestos and cause ovarian cancer and mesothelioma. They also allege that J&J concealed the risk for decades. In October 2016, the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation (JPML) consolidated federal ovarian cancer cases as MDL No. 2738 in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey. In July 2018, a St. Louis jury awarded $4.69B to 22 women in the Ingham case. The award was reduced to $2.12B on appeal, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined review in June 2021. J&J stopped selling talc-based powder in North America in 2020 and worldwide by 2023.
J&J then tried three times to resolve the litigation through the “Texas Two-Step,” moving its talc liabilities into a subsidiary through a Texas divisional merger. Courts dismissed subsidiary LTL Management’s 2021 and 2023 Chapter 11 filings for lack of financial distress. In September 2024, Red River Talc filed a third, prepackaged case with a roughly $9B plan for more than 90,000 ovarian claimants. On March 31, 2025, Judge Christopher Lopez rejected the plan over solicitation and voting defects and refused nonconsensual third-party releases. J&J declined to appeal, withdrew the offer, and said it would litigate every case.
The MDL then reactivated and had grown to 68,435 pending cases by July 2026, up 406 in a month. Trial results have varied. J&J has won defense verdicts, but in December 2025 a Baltimore jury awarded $1.56B to a single mesothelioma plaintiff, a verdict J&J is appealing. In January 2026, special master Freda Wolfson, the MDL’s former presiding judge, issued a 658-page report on renewed Daubert motions. It recommended that plaintiffs’ general-causation experts be allowed to testify that genital talc use is associated with ovarian cancer, and J&J’s objections are before Judge Michael A. Shipp. On March 26, 2026, Magistrate Judge Rukhsanah L. Singh disqualified Beasley Allen and attorney Andy Birchfield from the MDL and removed the firm from the Plaintiffs’ Steering Committee. The court found the firm had improperly collaborated with former J&J lawyer James Conlan on an alternative settlement strategy.
After a May 2026 evidentiary hearing, plaintiffs withdrew their two specific-causation experts from the bellwether cases. On July 22, 2026, Judge Singh ordered plaintiffs to show cause why the remaining MDL claims should not be dismissed for lack of admissible specific-causation evidence. On July 27, 2026, J&J announced a proposed $5.5B resolution of the remaining ovarian talc claims in federal and state courts. The proposal excludes UK claims and mesothelioma cases and is conditioned on participation by at least 95% of claimants, with payments expected in 2027 and 2028. On August 3, 2026, Judge Shipp heard the steering committee on its path forward. On September 14, 2026, the court ordered that MDL deadlines remain in abeyance during settlement implementation and required biweekly reports on claimant participation. The same day, J&J settled on undisclosed terms with three California ovarian cancer plaintiffs whose bellwether trial had ended in a defense verdict.
Timeline 14 events
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SettlementJ&J settles three California ovarian cancer bellwether cases
Johnson & Johnson settled, on undisclosed terms, with three California ovarian cancer plaintiffs whose consolidated bellwether trial had ended in a defense verdict earlier in the summer.
J&J, Trio Of Bellwether California Ovarian Cancer Plaintiffs Settle PosttrialTalc Baby Powder Lawsuit | September 2026 Update
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OrderMDL court keeps deadlines paused and orders biweekly settlement reports
Judge Shipp ordered that talc MDL case deadlines remain paused while settlement implementation continues. The order directed negotiation counsel to file status reports on claimant participation every two weeks, starting September 15, 2026.
Talcum Powder MDL Court Orders Deadlines in Docket Should Remain Held in AbeyanceTalcum Powder Lawsuit Updates & Latest News | September 2026
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HearingMDL court holds hearing on bellwether process plans
Judge Shipp held a hearing after ordering the Plaintiffs’ Steering Committee to explain how it intended to proceed with the bellwether trial process amid settlement talks.
Newark: Judge Michael A. Shipp Holds 68,435 Talc Cases... Hearing Aug. 3Talcum Powder Lawsuit - Complete Expert Guide (2026)Talc Baby Powder Lawsuit | September 2026 Update
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SettlementJ&J announces proposed $5.5B global talc settlement
The deal requires at least 95% of claimants to participate and excludes UK claims and mesothelioma cases. J&J expects to pay $3B in 2027, with further payments in 2028 and no cap on the total payout.
Johnson & Johnson Announces a Proposed Resolution of Ovarian Talc LitigationJ&J reaches sweeping talc deal that could end decade of litigationJohnson & Johnson offers $5.5bn to settle talc cancer lawsuits
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JudgmentMDL court orders plaintiffs to show cause on specific causation
Magistrate Judge Rukhsanah Singh granted J&J’s motion and ordered plaintiffs to explain why the remaining ovarian cancer claims should not be dismissed. Plaintiffs had withdrawn specific-causation experts Dr. Daniel Clarke-Pearson and Dr. Judith Wolf from the bellwether cases after a May 2026 evidentiary hearing.
Johnson & Johnson Wins Big: Federal Judge Orders Nearly 70,000 Talc Claimants to Show Why They Shouldn't be DismissedTalcum Powder MDL Court Orders All Plaintiffs to Show Cause on Specific Causation
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OrderMagistrate judge disqualifies Beasley Allen and Andy Birchfield from talc MDL
The court found the firm had improperly collaborated with former J&J lawyer James Conlan on an alternative settlement strategy and removed it from the Plaintiffs’ Steering Committee. It had already been disqualified from thousands of New Jersey state-court cases.
Johnson & Johnson Gets Beasley Allen Tossed From Talc Cases (3)Judge Disqualifies Beasley Allen From Talc MDL
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OrderSpecial master recommends admitting plaintiffs’ causation experts
Retired Judge Freda Wolfson’s 658-page report found plaintiffs’ experts reliably showed a statistically significant association between genital talc use and ovarian cancer. J&J’s objections are before Judge Shipp.
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JudgmentBaltimore jury awards $1.56B in Craft mesothelioma case
The jury awarded about $60M in compensatory damages and $1.5B in punitive damages ($1B against J&J and $500M against Pecos River Talc). J&J is appealing.
J&J Talc Jury Awards $1.56 Billion to Asbestos Cancer Victim
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JudgmentBankruptcy court rejects Red River plan as J&J returns to tort system
Judge Christopher Lopez found the solicitation and voting process defective and refused nonconsensual third-party releases. J&J said it would not appeal and withdrew its settlement offer.
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OtherRed River Talc files third bankruptcy with roughly $9B plan
The prepackaged Texas Chapter 11 case claimed support from more than 75% of more than 90,000 ovarian claimants.
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JudgmentThird Circuit dismisses the first talc bankruptcy
The court held LTL was not in financial distress. A second LTL filing with an $8.9B proposal was dismissed in July 2023 on the same ground.
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OtherLTL Management files the first “Texas Two-Step” bankruptcy
J&J moved its talc liabilities into a new subsidiary through a Texas divisional merger and put it into Chapter 11 to force a global resolution.
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JudgmentIngham jury awards $4.69B to 22 women
The St. Louis verdict was later reduced to $2.12B on appeal. The U.S. Supreme Court declined review in June 2021.
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OrderJPML consolidates federal talc claims as MDL 2738 in New Jersey
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeWill J&J’s proposed $5.5 billion ovarian talc settlement reach its participation threshold and proceed by December 31, 2027, or will the MDL court dismiss the remaining ovarian claims first?
- J&J ovarian talc deal proceeds57%
- Still pending on December 31, 202730%
- Court dismisses MDL ovarian claims13%
- Resolves by
- Dec 31, 2027in 14 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The proposed $5.5 billion ovarian talc deal is more likely than not to reach its 95% threshold and proceed by December 31, 2027 (57%). The main reason is plaintiffs’ weak leverage. They withdrew their specific-causation experts, and a show-cause order on dismissal is pending.
How it resolves. “Deal proceeds” if, by December 31, 2027, J&J or negotiation counsel publicly confirms that the 95% participation condition was met or waived and the settlement is going forward, for example through a J&J announcement, SEC filing, court status report, or the start of settlement payments. “Court dismisses” if, before that happens, the MDL court enters an order dismissing all or substantially all remaining ovarian cancer claims for lack of specific-causation evidence. “Still pending” covers every other state on December 31, 2027. That includes participation still being tallied, or the deal being terminated while the claims remain active.
Reasoning
Starting point. Private global mass-tort settlements with high participation walk-away thresholds (e.g., Vioxx, 3M earplugs): Roughly 70% to 80% of such deals reach their threshold or see it waived, often after one or more deadline extensions.
Large private mass-tort settlements with high walk-away thresholds usually clear them or see them waived, roughly 70% to 80% of the time, though often after extensions. The posture here pushes claimants toward the deal. Plaintiffs withdrew their bellwether specific-causation experts, and the court ordered them to show cause why the remaining claims should not be dismissed. The court has paused deadlines and ordered biweekly participation reports, which suggests an active enrollment process. J&J plans to pay $3 billion in 2027, so a decision on the threshold should come well before the resolve date. A 95% threshold across about 68,400 MDL cases plus state-court claims is demanding, and holdouts or disqualified counsel could slow enrollment or force renegotiation. That risk is the main reason still pending is the leading alternative at 30%. A dismissal order is less likely while the court holds deadlines in abeyance for settlement. Nothing in the record has changed since the previous forecast on September 24, 2026, so the numbers are unchanged.
Plaintiffs withdrew specific-causation experts, and a show-cause order is pending · Demanding 95% participation threshold across federal and state claims · Court paused deadlines and requires biweekly participation reports · J&J’s planned 2027 payments set a near-term enrollment timeline · Holdouts, including disqualified counsel’s clients, could delay the deal
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Sep 25, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made