About 620,000 Brazilian claimants are suing BHP’s UK and Australian parent companies in the High Court for damages over the 2015 Fundão (Mariana) dam collapse. The court held BHP liable in November 2025 and, on October 12, 2026, ruled that Pogust Goodhead remains the claimants’ solicitors of record. The Stage 2 quantum trial is listed for April 2027.
Latest development Oct 12, 2026
On October 12, 2026, a High Court judge ruled that the Mariana Litigation Clients’ Committee had no authority to terminate Pogust Goodhead’s retainer. The committee also had no authority to appoint Bailey Glasser International in its place. Pogust Goodhead, now reverting to its former name PGMBM, remains the claimants’ solicitors of record, and the case continues toward the Stage 2 quantum trial listed for April 2027.
Why it matters
The case will decide how much BHP’s UK and Australian parent companies must pay about 620,000 Brazilian claimants for a dam collapse at an overseas joint venture. The liability ruling affects group-structure and forum risk for multinationals with hazardous operations abroad.
Background
On November 5, 2015, the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco iron-ore mine, a 50/50 joint venture of BHP and Vale, collapsed. The collapse killed 19 people and sent mine waste down the Rio Doce to the Atlantic. In November 2018, the Município de Mariana, other Brazilian municipalities, and other claimants issued group proceedings in the High Court of Justice of England and Wales. They sued BHP Group (UK) Ltd and BHP Group Ltd, BHP’s UK and Australian parent companies. The group grew to about 620,000 claimants, including individuals, businesses, utilities, faith institutions, and Indigenous communities.
In November 2020, the High Court struck out the claims as an abuse of process. The Court of Appeal of England and Wales reinstated them in July 2022, and the UK Supreme Court refused BHP permission to appeal in 2023. A Stage 1 liability trial ran before Mrs Justice O’Farrell in the Technology and Construction Court from October 2024 to March 2025. Shortly after it opened, BHP, Vale, and Samarco signed a R$170B (about $30B) settlement with the Brazilian authorities, which BHP argued answered much of the English claim. BHP’s contribution claim against Vale settled separately on a 50/50 basis.
On November 14, 2025, the court held BHP liable under Brazilian law in a 1,129-paragraph judgment ([2025] EWHC 3001 (TCC)). It found BHP strictly liable as a “polluter” under the Environmental Law and liable on a fault basis under the Civil Code, and it largely rejected BHP’s limitation defenses. On January 19, 2026, the trial judge refused permission to appeal except on a single ground concerning interest on costs ([2026] EWHC 73 (TCC)). On May 6, 2026, the Court of Appeal refused permission on all five substantive grounds as having no real prospect of success ([2026] EWCA Civ 502). It expedited the surviving costs-interest appeal for a hearing in around October 2026.
On August 28, 2026, the claimants’ Client Committee decided to appoint Bailey Glasser International, working with Hausfeld & Co LLP, in place of Pogust Goodhead. Pogust Goodhead disputed the committee’s authority, and on September 4, 2026, it applied to the High Court for a declaration to that effect. On September 11, 2026, Mr Justice Constable refused Bailey Glasser International’s application to stay the damages phase pending that dispute. The court listed a hearing before a different judge for October 5–6, 2026, to decide which firm validly represents the claimants. On October 12, 2026, the High Court ruled that the committee had no authority to terminate Pogust Goodhead’s retainer or appoint Bailey Glasser International in its place. Pogust Goodhead, now using its former name PGMBM, remains the claimants’ solicitors of record. The Stage 2 trial on causation and quantum, on claims the claimants value at up to £36B, is listed for April 2027, and individual entitlements will follow.
Timeline 15 events
-
JudgmentHigh Court confirms Pogust Goodhead as solicitors of record
A High Court judge ruled that the Mariana Litigation Clients’ Committee had no authority to terminate Pogust Goodhead’s retainer or appoint Bailey Glasser International in its place. Pogust Goodhead, now reverting to its former name PGMBM, remains in charge of the litigation.
Pogust Goodhead wins fight to represent claimants in Mariana litigationBrazil Dam Victims Lose Lawyer Swap on 12 OctoberBattle over Britain's biggest lawsuit ends in victory for scandal-hit firm
-
OtherBailey Glasser hires ex-Pogust partner before representation hearing
Bailey Glasser International announced it had hired Guy Robson, a former Pogust Goodhead partner, to lead its Latin America practice, days before the High Court hearing on claimant representation.
Bailey Glasser appoints ex-Pogust partner as LatAm headBGI Taps Ex-Pogust Partner Ahead Of Mariana Case HearingRival firm adds another ex-Pogust Goodhead partner as Mariana control showdown looms
-
OrderHigh Court sets October 2026 hearing on claimants’ representation
The court listed a public hearing before a different judge for October 5–6, 2026, to decide whether Pogust Goodhead or Bailey Glasser International validly represents the Mariana claimants.
High Court rejects bid to stay Mariana Dam litigationFormer Pogust Goodhead chief executive joins BGI in battle for control of Mariana Dam litigation
-
OrderHigh Court refuses Bailey Glasser’s bid to stay damages phase
Mr Justice Constable dismissed the application to stay the Stage 2 damages proceedings pending the representation dispute. The court ruled that the litigation would continue toward a quantum trial listed for April 2027.
High Court rejects bid to stay Mariana Dam litigationFormer Pogust Goodhead chief executive joins BGI in battle for control of Mariana Dam litigation
-
FilingPogust Goodhead applies to High Court to challenge validity of its removal
Pogust Goodhead filed an application seeking a declaration that the Client Committee lacked authority to terminate its retainer and transfer representation to Bailey Glasser International.
'A matter of serious concern' – Pogust Goodhead takes Mariana Dam custody battle to High CourtPogust Goodhead goes to court to retain control of dam case
-
OtherFormer Pogust Goodhead CEO Thomas Goodhead joins Bailey Glasser International
Thomas Goodhead, former chief executive of Pogust Goodhead, joined Bailey Glasser International’s team on the Mariana case, alongside newly retained barristers, as the firm seeks confirmation as the claimants’ solicitors.
Ex-Pogust Goodhead CEO Joins Firm Battling For BHP CaseFormer Pogust Goodhead chief executive joins BGI in battle for control of Mariana Dam litigation
-
OrderClient Committee purports to replace Pogust Goodhead with Bailey Glasser International
The claimants’ Client Committee decided to terminate Pogust Goodhead’s retainer and appoint Bailey Glasser International, working with Hausfeld & Co LLP, as new solicitors of record. Pogust Goodhead disputes that the committee had authority to do so.
Chaos as Pogust Goodhead and Quinn Emanuel fight claimants' attempt to dump themFormer Pogust Goodhead partners attempt takeover of £36bn BHP case
-
AppealCourt of Appeal refuses permission on all substantive grounds
In [2026] EWCA Civ 502, heard on March 12, 2026, the court found no real prospect of success on all five substantive grounds. It expedited the surviving ground, interest on pre-judgment costs, for a hearing in around October 2026.
[2026] EWCA Civ 502, approved judgmentSolicitors Journal report
-
OrderTrial judge refuses permission to appeal
In a consequentials judgment ([2026] EWHC 73 (TCC)), Mrs Justice O’Farrell refused permission except on interest on costs. The judgment recited the claimants’ costs to that point at about £189M net.
-
JudgmentHigh Court holds BHP liable under Brazilian law
In [2025] EWHC 3001 (TCC), the court held BHP strictly liable as a polluter under Brazilian environmental law and liable in fault under the Civil Code. It largely rejected BHP’s limitation defenses.
-
HearingStage 1 liability trial opens
The trial ran to March 13, 2025 (about 50 hearing days) before Mrs Justice O’Farrell. Shortly after it opened, BHP, Vale, and Samarco signed a R$170B settlement with the Brazilian authorities.
-
AppealCourt of Appeal revives the claims
In [2022] EWCA Civ 951, the court reinstated the group action. The UK Supreme Court refused BHP permission to appeal in 2023.
-
JudgmentHigh Court strikes out the claims as an abuse of process
Turner J ruled in light of parallel Brazilian proceedings and remediation schemes.
-
FilingClaimants issue group action in England
Claims were brought against the UK and Australian BHP parent companies on behalf of a group that grew to roughly 620,000 Brazilian claimants.
-
OtherFundão tailings dam collapses
The dam at the Samarco mine, a 50/50 joint venture of BHP and Vale, failed, killing 19 people and polluting the Rio Doce for hundreds of kilometers to the Atlantic.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeWill BHP agree a settlement with the Mariana claimants in the English group action by June 30, 2027?
- No settlement by June 30, 202764%
- BHP settles with claimants27%
- Partial deal with some claimants9%
- Resolves by
- Jun 30, 2027in 8 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
No settlement by June 30, 2027, is most likely, at 64%. BHP has fought every stage and argues the R$170 billion Brazilian settlement already covers much of the claim. The October 12, 2026, ruling ending the representation dispute removes one obstacle to a deal before the April 2027 quantum trial.
How it resolves. Resolves “BHP settles with claimants” if, by June 30, 2027, BHP, the claimants’ solicitors, or the court publicly confirm a binding settlement or agreement in principle covering all or substantially all claimants in the English action. Resolves “Partial deal with some claimants” if a public settlement covers only a defined subgroup, such as the municipalities, while other claims continue. Resolves “No settlement by June 30, 2027” if neither occurs, whether or not the Stage 2 trial has opened.
Reasoning
Starting point. Large funded English group actions after an adverse liability ruling, with a quantum trial listed within about six months: Roughly 40% to 60% of funded group actions settle at some point after liability is established. A smaller share, perhaps 25% to 35%, settle in the six months before a listed quantum trial.
Funded group actions often settle after liability is fixed, but fewer do so in the narrow window before a listed quantum trial, so the base rate is roughly 25% to 35%. Liability is now final in practice because the Court of Appeal refused permission on all substantive grounds in May 2026, which raises pressure on BHP. BHP’s main remaining lever is quantum: it argues that many claimants were compensated or released claims under the Brazilian schemes, and it may prefer to test that at trial. The October 12, 2026, judgment confirmed Pogust Goodhead (PGMBM) as solicitors of record and gives BHP a single counterparty. The recent split over representation, the claimants’ costs of about £189 million, and funder pressure may push the claimant side toward a deal. A partial deal with a subgroup such as the municipalities is a plausible middle path. The leading alternative is a global settlement, which becomes likelier as the April 2027 trial approaches. An appeal of the representation ruling could cause new disruption and lower that chance.
Liability is effectively final after the Court of Appeal refused permission · BHP argues the Brazilian settlement sharply reduces recoverable damages · Representation dispute resolved in favor of Pogust Goodhead (PGMBM) · Stage 2 quantum trial listed for April 2027 creates deadline pressure · Claimant-side funding strain and internal division may favor settlement
Previous forecast: correct “How will the High Court resolve whether Pogust Goodhead or Bailey Glasser International validly represents the Mariana claimants, by March 31, 2027?” (Sep 24, 2026). On October 12, 2026, a High Court judge ruled that the Mariana Litigation Clients’ Committee had no authority to terminate Pogust Goodhead’s retainer or appoint Bailey Glasser International. Pogust Goodhead remains solicitors of record for the claimants. It put “Pogust Goodhead keeps the mandate” at 40%. Track record
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 13, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made