Petersen v. Argentina (YPF): $16.1B Litigation

Burford-funded former YPF shareholders won a record $16.1B S.D.N.Y. judgment against Argentina over the 2012 renationalization of the oil company, only for a divided Second Circuit to reverse it in March 2026, leaving a U.S. Supreme Court petition as the last act.

LATEST DEVELOPMENT · JUN 17, 2026

After the Second Circuit denied rehearing en banc on 2 June 2026, the English Commercial Court (Knowles J) stayed Petersen’s parallel London enforcement claim on 17 June 2026 rather than dismiss it, preserving the claim while the plaintiffs pursue a U.S. Supreme Court certiorari petition.

PREDICTED OUTCOME

AI-GENERATED · METHODOLOGY →

Respondent win ~86% likely HORIZON: cert denied by mid-2027 CONFIDENCE: HIGH

The most likely ending is a final win for Argentina, roughly 86 percent, with the Supreme Court denying certiorari between January and June 2027 and the Second Circuit’s reversal standing as the last word. The mechanism is simple attrition: the panel decided the case on the content of Argentine corporate law and the reach of Argentina’s expropriation statute, which is a Rule 44.1 foreign-law question with no clean circuit split and no federal statutory hook, exactly the profile the Court declines even when the money is enormous. The Cabranes dissent, the $16.1 billion headline and the sovereign-accountability framing will draw amicus attention, but en banc denial on 2 June 2026 removed the strongest signal of intra-circuit disagreement and left plaintiffs arguing error correction. Once cert is denied, the stayed London enforcement claim collapses for want of a judgment to enforce and should be dismissed or withdrawn within months, leaving Burford with a written-off asset and only a speculative investment-treaty route that would be a new proceeding rather than a continuation of this one. Any negotiated exit is now priced off Argentina’s near-total leverage, so a face-saving payment would realistically be in the low hundreds of millions at most, well under 5 percent of the vacated award, and Milei’s government has little reason to sign even that before cert is resolved. The leading alternative, worth about 10 percent, is a cert grant on the standard of review for foreign-law determinations followed by vacatur and remand, which would revive the fight into 2028 without restoring the $16.1 billion figure. The single strongest driver is that the judgment is already gone and the plaintiffs must now win a discretionary grant on an unattractive question rather than merely defend a victory.

Judgment already vacated; plaintiffs need discretionary cert grant · Foreign-law question, no circuit split, poor cert vehicle · En banc denial removed strongest disagreement signal · Argentina’s leverage kills any meaningful settlement value · London claim stayed, not preserved on independent footing

Generated by claude-opus-5 on Aug 4, 2026, from this case’s record only. It stands until a major development changes the record. Not legal or investment advice. How predictions are made →

BACKGROUND

When Argentina expropriated Repsol’s 51% controlling stake in YPF in April 2012, it ignored provisions in YPF’s bylaws requiring anyone taking control of the company to tender for all remaining shares. The Petersen companies (which had held about 25%) and Eton Park funds sued Argentina and YPF in the Southern District of New York, with Burford Capital funding and largely owning the claims. Judge Loretta Preska granted summary judgment on liability in March 2023 and in September 2023 entered judgment of roughly $16.1B, about $14.39B for Petersen and $1.71B for Eton Park, including 8% prejudgment interest, the largest judgment ever rendered against a foreign sovereign in a U.S. court. In June 2025, she ordered Argentina to turn over its 51% YPF stake toward satisfaction. The Second Circuit stayed that order pending appeal.

On 27 March 2026, a divided Second Circuit panel reversed outright, holding that the plaintiffs’ claims are not cognizable under Argentine law: YPF’s bylaws did not create bilateral, shareholder-enforceable contract obligations, and Argentina’s public expropriation law independently forecloses the damages remedy. The panel, over a dissent by Judge Cabranes, vacated both the money judgment and the turnover order, while acknowledging Argentina’s ‘knowing and flagrant’ breach of promises made to foreign investors. Rehearing en banc was denied on 2 June 2026 and the mandate issued, so the plaintiffs’ remaining U.S. avenue is a certiorari petition expected by around September 2026. The English Commercial Court stayed a parallel London enforcement claim on 17 June 2026 pending the outcome, and Burford has flagged investment-treaty arbitration against Argentina as a fallback.

TIMELINE

JUN 2, 2026APPEAL

Rehearing en banc denied. Certiorari petition next

The mandate issued in June 2026. The English Commercial Court stayed the parallel London enforcement claim on 17 June 2026 pending the plaintiffs’ expected Supreme Court petition.

Solicitors Journal
MAR 27, 2026APPEAL

Second Circuit reverses the $16.1B judgment 2-1

The panel held the claims not cognizable under Argentine law and vacated the judgment and turnover order. Judge Cabranes dissented.

Burford Capital statement
AUG 2025PROCEDURAL

Second Circuit stays the share turnover pending appeal
JUN 30, 2025ENFORCEMENT

Turnover order: Argentina directed to hand over its 51% YPF stake

Judge Preska ordered Argentina to transfer its controlling YPF shareholding toward satisfying the judgment.

Sullivan & Cromwell memo
SEP 2023JUDGMENT

S.D.N.Y. enters $16.1B judgment

About $14.39B for Petersen and $1.71B for Eton Park, including prejudgment interest at 8%, the largest U.S. judgment against a foreign sovereign.

WilmerHale client alert
MAR 2023JUDGMENT

Judge Preska grants summary judgment on liability against Argentina

Claims against YPF itself were dismissed.
APR 2015FILING

Petersen entities sue Argentina and YPF in S.D.N.Y.

Eton Park followed with its own suit in 2016. Burford Capital funded the claims.
APR 2012OTHER

Argentina expropriates Repsol’s 51% stake in YPF

Argentina renationalized YPF without making the tender offer to remaining shareholders that YPF’s bylaws required.