NextEra, 9REN, Blasket, and other creditors are suing in U.S. courts to enforce unpaid Energy Charter Treaty awards won against Spain over its renewable energy subsidy rollback. On June 29, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to review the D.C. Circuit’s jurisdictional ruling, and Spain is now appealing confirmation judgments on the merits. On October 7, 2026, Spain filed its D.C. Circuit brief challenging six awards confirmed for Blasket.
Latest development Oct 7, 2026
On October 7, 2026, Spain filed its appellant brief in the consolidated appeals before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Spain argued that the district court wrongly confirmed six ICSID awards held by Blasket Renewable Investments LLC.
Why it matters
Creditors holding intra-EU Energy Charter Treaty awards are turning to U.S. courts because EU law bars Spain from paying them. With U.S. jurisdiction upheld, Spain’s merits appeals and asset discovery will decide whether those creditors can collect from an EU member state that refuses to pay.
Background
In 2013–2014, Spain rolled back its incentive regime for solar and other renewable energy, triggering some 50 investor claims under the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT). In May 2019, ICSID tribunals awarded NextEra Energy Global Holdings B.V. €290.6M and 9REN Holding S.à r.l. €41M, finding that the rollback breached the ECT. Dutch investors AES Solar and Ampere separately won €26.5M, an award later assigned to Blasket Renewable Investments LLC. Spain now faces roughly two dozen unpaid awards exceeding €1.5B, with interest and costs still accruing. Following the Achmea and Komstroy rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), EU law and the European Commission bar Spain from paying intra-EU awards.
Creditors including NextEra, 9REN, Antin, and Blasket therefore turned to U.S. federal courts under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA), starting in 2019. In March 2023, judges of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia split on jurisdiction. One judge dismissed Blasket’s petition, reasoning that EU investors could have no valid arbitration agreement with Spain, but others let enforcement suits proceed. On August 16, 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled for the creditors in the consolidated NextEra, 9REN, and Blasket appeals. It held that FSIA jurisdiction turns on the existence of an arbitration agreement rather than its scope, and it rejected Spain’s intra-EU objection as a jurisdictional bar.
In May 2025, Spain filed a petition for a writ of certiorari (No. 24-1130), and the U.S. Supreme Court invited the Solicitor General’s views on October 6, 2025. Parallel enforcement is advancing in Singapore, Australia, and the United Kingdom, and on February 24, 2026, the Singapore High Court allowed registration of the NextEra award. On March 4, 2026, the UK Supreme Court rejected Spain’s state immunity appeal in a related ICSID case. District courts have since confirmed the NextEra and 9REN awards, and on March 5, 2026, Spain filed its first merits appeal to the D.C. Circuit against a confirmation judgment. On June 12, 2026, the district court rejected Blasket’s bid to subpoena U.S. companies it alleged were Spanish state alter egos, including entities linked to Spain’s national football team.
After the Solicitor General recommended denial on May 26, 2026, the Supreme Court denied the cert petition on June 29, 2026. On September 25, 2026, the district court entered a judgment of more than €106M for Blasket on an award originally won by Eurus Energy Holdings. On September 30, 2026, the district court enforced three more ICSID awards assigned to Blasket, rejecting Spain’s EU law and assignee-standing defenses. On October 6, 2026, Blasket told the D.C. Circuit it may enforce a separate, transferred €29.3M award, and Spain contests the validity of the transfer. On October 7, 2026, Spain filed its appellant brief in the consolidated appeals, arguing that the district court wrongly confirmed six ICSID awards held by Blasket.
Timeline 16 events
-
FilingSpain files appellant brief at D.C. Circuit
In the consolidated appeals, Spain argued that the district court wrongly confirmed six ICSID awards in favor of Blasket.
Spain Tells D.C. Circuit 6 ICSID Awards Against It Were Wrongly Confirmed - Mealey's
-
HearingBlasket asks D.C. Circuit to let it enforce transferred award
Blasket Renewable Investments LLC argued that the original award creditors validly assigned their rights to enforce the €29.3M award against Spain. Spain had contested the transfer’s validity.
Blasket Says Spain Can't Block €29M Arbitral Award Transfer - Law3602025 Arbitration Year In Review – SpainBlasket Renewable Investments LLC v. Kingdom of Spain 25-7158 docket
-
JudgmentDistrict court enters judgment enforcing three more ICSID awards for Blasket
Judge Randolph D. Moss entered judgment in Blasket Renewable Investments LLC v. Kingdom of Spain, No. 25-cv-1756, enforcing three additional ICSID awards assigned to Blasket. The court denied Spain’s motion to dismiss or stay and rejected Spain’s EU law and assignee-standing defenses.
RENERGY v. Spain, Memorandum Opinion of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, 30 Sept 2026BLASKET RENEWABLE INVESTMENTS LLC v. KINGDOM OF SPAIN (1:25-cv-01756) docketJudge Confirms 3 ICSID Awards In Assignee's Favor Against Spain - Mealey'sCreditors Prevail Again: DC District Court Enforces Four ICSID Awards Against Spain
-
JudgmentDistrict court enters €106M judgment for Blasket against Spain
The judgment, which exceeded €106M, arose from an award originally won by Eurus Energy Holdings, a Toyota Tsusho unit.
Eurus Energy Holdings Corporation v. Kingdom of Spain (Opinion)EURUS ENERGY HOLDINGS CORPORATION v. KINGDOM OF SPAIN (1:25-cv-01842) docketSpain Ordered To Pay Blasket Over €106M In Energy Dispute - Law360
-
JudgmentU.S. Supreme Court denies Spain’s certiorari petition in Spain v. Blasket
The denial left in place the D.C. Circuit’s ruling that U.S. courts have jurisdiction over petitions to confirm the intra-EU ECT awards against Spain. The Court also denied review in a related case, Russian Federation v. Stabil LLC.
High Court Denies Spain's Petition For Review Of Intra-EU Arbitration CasesEnforcing Arbitral Awards Against Sovereigns: The US Remains the Forum of Choice—With Caveats
-
OrderDistrict court limits Blasket’s post-judgment asset discovery against Spain
Judge Beryl A. Howell rejected Blasket’s bid to subpoena U.S. companies it alleged were alter egos of the Spanish state, including entities linked to Spain’s national football team. Blasket sought the discovery to locate seizable assets.
Blasket v. Spain: Limits on Sovereign Asset DiscoveryUS court rips apart Blasket's 'bald' asset discovery move against Spain
-
FilingParties complete supplemental briefing on Spain’s cert petition
Spain, Blasket, NextEra, and 9REN filed supplemental briefs responding to the Solicitor General’s amicus brief of May 26, 2026, which recommended denial. Spain continued to press for review of the D.C. Circuit’s jurisdictional ruling.
No. 24-1130 In the Supreme Court of the United States - Second Supplemental BriefKingdom of Spain v. Blasket Renewable Investments LLC (24-1130)
-
OrderSolicitor General recommends denying Spain’s cert petition
The invited amicus brief opposed certiorari while flagging room for future FSIA challenges to award enforcement.
-
AppealSpain files its first merits appeal to the D.C. Circuit
Spain appealed a district court judgment enforcing one of the ICSID awards. It was Spain’s first merits challenge to confirmation since the NextEra jurisdictional ruling.
WilmerHale — Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards in the Post-NextEra Era
-
JudgmentUK Supreme Court rejects Spain’s state immunity appeal in related ICSID case
In Infrastructure Services Luxembourg S.à.r.l. v. Kingdom of Spain, the court unanimously held that Article 54 of the ICSID Convention constitutes a waiver of immunity. It held that Spain could not rely on immunity to block enforcement of a related €101M ECT award in England.
UK Supreme Court Rejects Spain's ICSID Immunity AppealUK Supreme Court Confirms Sovereign Immunity Is No Defence To ICSID Award Enforcement
-
EnforcementSingapore High Court rejects Spain’s immunity objections
In [2026] SGHC 43, the court allowed registration of the NextEra ICSID award. It held that Spain had submitted to enforcement jurisdiction through the ICSID Convention and the ECT.
NextEra Energy Global Holdings B.V. v Kingdom of Spain [2026] SGHC 43
-
AppealSpain files cert petition at the U.S. Supreme Court
Spain filed Kingdom of Spain v. Blasket Renewable Investments, No. 24-1130. On October 6, 2025, the Court called for the views of the Solicitor General.
-
AppealD.C. Circuit upholds U.S. jurisdiction over Spain’s intra-EU ECT awards
In the consolidated NextEra, 9REN, and Blasket appeals, the court held that FSIA jurisdiction turns on the existence of an arbitration agreement, not its scope. It rejected Spain’s intra-EU objection as a jurisdictional bar.
-
JudgmentDistrict court judges split over jurisdiction to enforce intra-EU awards
One judge dismissed Blasket’s petition, reasoning that EU investors could have no valid arbitration agreement with Spain. Others let enforcement suits proceed, leading to consolidated appeals.
-
AwardICSID tribunals award NextEra €290.6M and 9REN €41M
Tribunals found Spain’s subsidy rollback breached the ECT. Dutch investors AES Solar and Ampere separately won €26.5M, an award later assigned to Blasket Renewable Investments.
-
OtherSpain rolls back renewables incentives, triggering about 50 ECT claims
Reforms dismantling the feed-in tariff regime prompted dozens of Energy Charter Treaty arbitrations by foreign renewables investors.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will the D.C. Circuit resolve Spain’s appeal, noticed March 5, 2026, from the district court judgment confirming an ICSID Energy Charter Treaty award, by December 31, 2027?
- D.C. Circuit affirms confirmation57%
- Still pending on December 31, 202732%
- D.C. Circuit vacates or reverses7%
- Spain settles with award creditor4%
- Resolves by
- Dec 31, 2027in 14 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The D.C. Circuit is most likely to affirm confirmation of the ICSID award by December 31, 2027 (57%). ICSID awards receive full faith and credit in U.S. courts, and the D.C. Circuit already rejected Spain’s intra-EU objection at the jurisdictional stage. The main risk is timing, as briefing only opened October 7, 2026.
How it resolves. Resolves on the D.C. Circuit’s public docket or opinion in Spain’s merits appeal noticed March 5, 2026, including any consolidated appeals covering that judgment. “Affirms” means the court upholds the confirmation judgment in full. “Vacates or reverses” means the court sets aside the judgment in whole or in part, including any remand on the merits or on assignee standing. “Settles” means a public report or filing of a settlement or voluntary dismissal of the appeal. Otherwise the question is still pending on December 31, 2027.
Reasoning
Starting point. Federal appeals from judgments confirming ICSID awards against foreign sovereigns, and D.C. Circuit civil appeal reversal rates: Federal courts of appeals reverse roughly 10% to 15% of civil judgments. Confirmation of ICSID awards under 22 U.S.C. § 1650a is rarely disturbed because courts give them full faith and credit without merits review.
Federal appeals courts reverse roughly 10% to 15% of civil judgments, and ICSID confirmations face even narrower review because courts do not reexamine the merits. The D.C. Circuit’s August 16, 2024, ruling rejected Spain’s intra-EU objection as a jurisdictional bar, and the Supreme Court denied review on June 29, 2026. District judges have since repeatedly rejected Spain’s EU law and assignee-standing defenses, which leaves Spain with limited merits arguments. The assignee-standing issue for Blasket offers the most plausible path to a partial vacatur or remand. Settlement is unlikely because EU law and the European Commission bar Spain from paying intra-EU awards. Spain filed its appellant brief on October 7, 2026, so appellee briefing, a reply, and oral argument likely stretch into 2027. A decision before year-end 2027 is likely but not assured, which makes a still-pending result the leading alternative. The record shows no development since the October 25, 2026, forecast that moves any outcome by five points, so the numbers are unchanged.
ICSID awards get full faith and credit without merits review · D.C. Circuit already rejected Spain’s intra-EU objection · Briefing began October 7, 2026, so timing is tight · Assignee-standing challenge is Spain’s best remaining argument · EU law bars Spain from settling or paying
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Nov 1, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made