US v. Storm (Tornado Cash): $1B+ Criminal

The US prosecution of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm, convicted on one count in August 2025, with a retrial of the hung money-laundering and sanctions counts set for October 26, 2026, is the defining test of criminal liability for publishing immutable privacy code.

LATEST DEVELOPMENT · APR 24, 2026

After hearing argument on Storm’s Rule 29 acquittal motion on April 9, Judge Failla set the retrial of the two hung counts (money-laundering and sanctions conspiracies) for October 26, 2026, contingent on her ruling on the pending motion.

PREDICTED OUTCOME

AI-GENERATED · METHODOLOGY →

Split outcome ~42% likely HORIZON: mid-2027, appeal into 2028 CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

The most likely end state, at roughly 40 to 45 percent, is a materially mixed result reached between late 2026 and mid-2027: Storm keeps or loses only the Section 1960 count, walks on the money-laundering and sanctions conspiracies, and draws a sentence far below the five-year statutory cap, plausibly time served to about 24 months plus forfeiture. The strongest driver is the first jury’s own split, which convicted only on the weakest-penalty count and deadlocked on the two counts carrying real exposure, telling both sides that a second Manhattan jury is a coin flip on the serious theories. Judge Failla’s ten-month silence on the Rule 29 motion, argued in April 2026, signals genuine doubt about the non-custodial money-transmission theory, so partial acquittal or a narrowed retrial is a live path even if she stops short of ending the case. Watch for a pre-retrial deal in which DOJ dismisses the hung counts in exchange for finality on the count of conviction, which would produce the same practical split without a second three-week trial. The crypto-friendly posture of the current DOJ and the Tornado Cash delisting after Van Loon cut against an aggressive push for maximum exposure, even though prosecutors formally elected retrial in March 2026. The leading alternative, at about 25 percent, is a clean defense win in which Failla grants acquittal across the board or the Second Circuit later vacates the Section 1960 conviction on control-of-funds grounds. A government sweep with a conviction on the laundering conspiracy and a multi-year sentence sits near 25 percent, and whatever happens in the district court, an appeal on the open-source publishing question is near certain and will run into 2028.

First jury hung on both serious counts, convicted only lesser count · Ten-month Rule 29 delay signals doubt on Section 1960 theory · Crypto-friendly DOJ posture and Tornado Cash delisting reduce appetite · Section 1960 caps exposure at five years, sentence likely well below · Elite, industry-funded defense makes a guilty plea unlikely

Generated by claude-opus-5 on Aug 4, 2026, from this case’s record only. It stands until a major development changes the record. Not legal or investment advice. How predictions are made →

BACKGROUND

Roman Storm co-founded Tornado Cash, the immutable Ethereum smart-contract mixer that OFAC sanctioned in August 2022 (and delisted in March 2025) after criminals, including North Korea’s Lazarus Group, allegedly washed more than $1B through it. An August 2023 indictment in the Southern District of New York charged Storm with conspiring to commit money laundering, to violate US sanctions, and to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business. Prosecutors cast his deployment and maintenance of the protocol and its front-end as facilitation of laundering. The defense casts it as protected publication of open-source software.

At a four-week trial in July–August 2025, the jury convicted Storm on the unlicensed money-transmitting conspiracy count (up to five years) but deadlocked on the money-laundering and sanctions counts. Storm moved for acquittal under Rule 29 on September 30, 2025, arguing that failing to prevent bad acts is not agreeing to assist them. Judge Katherine Polk Failla heard argument on April 9, 2026 and has the motion under advisement. The government elected in March 2026 to retry the hung counts, and on April 24, 2026 the court set retrial for October 26, 2026, contingent on the acquittal ruling, with sentencing on the count of conviction deferred in the meantime.

TIMELINE

APR 24, 2026PROCEDURAL

Retrial set for October 26, 2026

Judge Failla scheduled the retrial contingent on her forthcoming ruling on the acquittal motion, argued April 9.

Inner City Press trial coverage
MAR 9, 2026PROCEDURAL

DOJ elects to retry the hung counts

Prosecutors asked for a retrial beginning in early-to-mid October 2026, estimating three weeks of trial.

U.S. Requests October Retrial for Roman Storm
SEP 30, 2025PROCEDURAL

Storm moves for acquittal under Rule 29

The defense argued the evidence showed at most a failure to prevent misuse, not an agreement to assist it.

U.S. v. Storm 2026 Update
AUG 6, 2025JUDGMENT

Partial verdict: guilty on one count, jury hangs on two

Storm was convicted of conspiring to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business (18 U.S.C. § 1960). The jury deadlocked on the money-laundering and sanctions conspiracy counts.

U.S. v. Storm 2026 Update
JUL 14, 2025HEARING

Trial begins in Manhattan
MAR 2025OTHER

OFAC delists Tornado Cash

Treasury removed the protocol from the SDN list following the Fifth Circuit’s Van Loon ruling, a backdrop to, but no bar on, the criminal case.
AUG 23, 2023FILING

Storm indicted in the Southern District of New York

Charges: conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to violate IEEPA sanctions, and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money-transmitting business.
AUG 8, 2022OTHER

OFAC sanctions Tornado Cash

Treasury designated the mixer over more than $7B in transaction volume, including proceeds laundered for North Korea’s Lazarus Group.