Long-term LNG buyers allege in ICC and LCIA arbitrations that Venture Global delayed commercial operations at its Calcasieu Pass plant to sell their contracted cargoes at spot prices. Tribunals have rejected the Shell and Repsol claims and found Venture Global liable to BP and Galp, and the Edison arbitration ended after a settlement. BP’s damages hearing is scheduled for May 2027, and an award on the Orlen claim is expected by the end of 2026.
Latest development Oct 7, 2026
On October 7, 2026, an ICC tribunal issued a partial final award in Galp’s arbitration against Venture Global Calcasieu Pass. It found that Venture Global breached its obligation under the long-term LNG supply agreement to declare commercial operation of the Calcasieu Project on time. Damages, capped at $170M under the contract, will be set at a later hearing expected in 2027 or 2028.
Why it matters
The arbitrations test when commissioning delays allow an LNG seller to divert contracted cargoes into a high-priced spot market. The split awards, disputes over liability caps, and BP’s damages phase will affect how long-term LNG contracts allocate delay and windfall risk between sellers and buyers.
Background
Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana shipped its first LNG in March 2022, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed gas prices to elevated levels. The company then sold “commissioning” cargoes at spot prices until it declared commercial operations on April 15, 2025. During that period, it told its foundation customers, including Shell, BP, Edison, Repsol, Galp, and PGNiG (Orlen), that the facility was not yet ready to begin their 20-year contracts. Beginning in May 2023, the offtakers brought arbitrations at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the London Court of International Arbitration (LCIA). They asserted that the delay breached their sale and purchase agreements.
In August 2025, an ICC tribunal issued a partial final award rejecting Shell’s claims. In October 2025, another ICC tribunal issued a partial final award in BP’s favor on liability. It held that Venture Global breached its obligations to declare commercial operations in a timely manner and to act as a reasonable and prudent operator. BP seeks $3.7B to more than $6B in damages at a hearing scheduled for May 2027. Venture Global has said it does not expect the contractual liability cap to apply to the final award.
In January 2026, an ICC tribunal found that Venture Global had acted as a reasonable and prudent operator and denied Repsol’s claims in full. On March 2, 2026, the Supreme Court of the State of New York, New York County, denied Shell’s petition to vacate and confirmed the award in Venture Global’s favor. On March 26, 2026, Venture Global settled Edison’s LCIA claim in exchange for additional cargo deliveries to Europe. The arbitration was to be terminated once those deliveries were complete. Venture Global later confirmed that the arbitration was terminated as of June 8, 2026, under the settlement agreement.
On October 7, 2026, an ICC tribunal found in a partial final award that Venture Global breached its Galp supply agreement by failing to declare commercial operation on time. Damages, capped at $170M under the contract, will be set at a later hearing expected in 2027 or 2028. Venture Global disputes the ruling. The Galp and Orlen claims seek more than $2.4B in aggregate against asserted caps of $425M. An award on the Orlen claim is expected by the end of 2026.
Timeline 10 events
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AwardICC tribunal finds Venture Global liable to Galp
The partial final award held that Venture Global Calcasieu Pass breached its obligation under the Galp supply agreement to declare commercial operation of the Calcasieu Project on time. A later hearing, expected in 2027 or 2028, will set damages capped at $170M.
Venture Global, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026Venture Global breached Galp LNG supply contract, tribunal rulesGalp wins Calcasieu Pass arbitration against Venture GlobalICC Finds Venture Global Delayed Galp LNG Deliveries - Law360
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OrderVenture Global confirms termination of Edison arbitration
Venture Global confirmed in its quarterly report for the second quarter of 2026 that the Edison arbitration was terminated as of June 8, 2026, under the March 2026 settlement agreement.
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SettlementVenture Global settles Edison claim for additional cargoes
Venture Global agreed to deliver additional LNG cargoes to Edison in Europe. The LCIA arbitration was to be terminated on completion, expected by the end of the second quarter of 2026.
Venture Global–Edison settlement announcementVenture Global LNG, Edison settle Calcasieu Pass arbitration dispute (LNG Prime)
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JudgmentNew York court denies Shell’s vacatur petition and confirms award
The Supreme Court of the State of New York, New York County, denied Shell NA LNG LLC’s petition to vacate the August 2025 ICC award. It confirmed the award in favor of Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC under CPLR 7511(e).
Venture Global wins case against Shell as NY court refuses to overturn arbitration awardShell NA LNG LLC v Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC (2026 NY Slip Op 50385(U))Judge Blocks Shell's Effort to Revisit Venture Global LNG Contract Ruling
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AwardICC tribunal denies Repsol’s claims in full
The tribunal found that Venture Global Calcasieu Pass had acted as a Reasonable and Prudent Operator.
BP seeks more than $3.7 billion in damages from Venture Global (LNG Prime)
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AwardICC tribunal finds Venture Global liable to BP
The partial final award held that Venture Global Calcasieu Pass breached its obligations to declare commercial operations on time and to act as a Reasonable and Prudent Operator. A May 2027 hearing will fix damages, which BP puts at $3.7B to more than $6B.
Venture Global Form 10-Q (Q1 2026)BP seeks more than $3.7 billion in damages from Venture Global (LNG Prime)
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AwardICC tribunal rejects Shell’s claims
A partial final award found that Venture Global Calcasieu Pass had not breached Shell’s sale and purchase agreement. The Supreme Court of the State of New York denied Shell’s petition to vacate on March 2, 2026.
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OtherCalcasieu Pass declares commercial operations
Venture Global declared commercial operations on April 15, 2025, roughly three years after first production.
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FilingFoundation offtakers begin arbitrations
Shell (ICC) and Edison (LCIA) filed requests for arbitration asserting that Calcasieu Pass was late declaring commercial operations. BP, Repsol, Galp, and PGNiG (Orlen) brought parallel claims.
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OtherCalcasieu Pass ships first LNG as commissioning cargoes
The plant exported its first cargo in March 2022. It went on selling commissioning cargoes at elevated spot prices through the post-invasion gas crunch while long-term offtakers waited for the commercial operations date.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will the ICC tribunal rule on liability in Orlen’s (PGNiG) arbitration against Venture Global Calcasieu Pass by June 30, 2027?
- Orlen wins liability finding43%
- Tribunal rejects Orlen’s claims34%
- Still pending on June 30, 202715%
- Orlen settles with Venture Global8%
- Resolves by
- Jun 30, 2027in 8 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
An ICC tribunal is somewhat more likely than not to find Venture Global liable to Orlen, at 43%, with a full rejection at 34%. An award is expected by the end of 2026. The two most recent tribunals ruling on similar delay claims, for BP and Galp, both found breach.
How it resolves. Resolves on public disclosure (Venture Global SEC filings or press releases, Orlen statements, or reliable press reports) of a partial or final award on liability in Orlen’s arbitration. “Orlen wins liability finding” if the award finds Venture Global breached any obligation under Orlen’s supply agreement, regardless of damages or caps. “Tribunal rejects Orlen’s claims” if the award denies Orlen’s claims in full. “Orlen settles” if a settlement is publicly announced before any liability award. “Still pending” if none of these has occurred by June 30, 2027.
Reasoning
Starting point. Parallel ICC liability awards on the same Calcasieu Pass commercial operations delay, plus ICC award timing against disclosed expectations: Four liability awards so far split two to two (Shell and Repsol rejected, BP and Galp liable). ICC awards often slip past expected dates by several months.
The closest reference class is the four Calcasieu Pass liability awards already issued, which split evenly between Venture Global and the buyers. That gives a starting point near 50% for an Orlen liability finding before adjusting for timing and settlement. The October 7, 2026 Galp award is the freshest signal, and Galp and Orlen are both European buyers bringing parallel claims that the record groups together. Each tribunal reads its own contract and evidence, so the Shell and Repsol outcomes keep a full rejection a strong alternative at 34%. Venture Global settled Edison with extra cargoes, but it has fought the other claims to award, so a pre-award Orlen settlement is a modest 8%. The award is expected by the end of 2026, leaving six months of margin, but ICC awards often slip, so 15% remains for still pending. The previous forecast asked about Galp, which has now been decided, so its numbers are not compared here.
Split record of four prior liability awards · Recent Galp and BP findings of late commercial operations · Contract-specific wording and evidence in Orlen’s agreement · Award expected by end of 2026, with slippage risk · Venture Global’s preference for awards over settlement
Previous forecast: missed “How will Galp’s arbitration claim against Venture Global Calcasieu Pass be resolved by June 30, 2027?” (Sep 24, 2026). On October 7, 2026, an ICC tribunal issued a partial final award finding that Venture Global Calcasieu Pass breached its obligation to Galp to declare commercial operation on time. Damages, capped at $170 million, will be set at a later hearing. It put “Galp wins liability finding” at 24%. Track record
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 11, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made