A class of about 12 million U.S. merchants alleges in the Eastern District of New York that Visa, Mastercard, and their member banks fixed interchange fees. The court preliminarily approved a proposed settlement, valued by the parties at about $38B, and more than 900 merchants and trade groups filed objections on September 15, 2026. A final fairness hearing is scheduled for November 16, 2026.
Latest development Sep 15, 2026
On September 15, 2026, more than 900 merchants and trade groups filed objections urging the court to reject the proposed $38B injunctive-relief settlement at final approval. A group of 29 large merchants, including Cigna, DoorDash, General Motors, and Peet’s Coffee, joined them. The final fairness hearing remains set for November 16, 2026.
Why it matters
The outcome will decide the interchange rates and card-acceptance rules that apply to U.S. merchants and their customers for up to eight years. Approval would resolve injunctive claims pending since 2005, after the Second Circuit vacated a 2012 settlement and the district court rejected a 2024 deal.
Background
In 2005, merchants that accept Visa and Mastercard cards sued the two networks and their member banks under the Sherman Act. They allege that the networks collectively fixed interchange fees. They also allege that network rules, such as “honor all cards,” stopped merchants from resisting those fees. The cases were consolidated as a multidistrict litigation (MDL 1720) in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York. The parties reached a first settlement, worth about $7.25B, in 2012, and the district court approved it in 2013.
In 2016, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit vacated the approval and class certification, finding that the deal improperly released future injunctive claims. Objecting merchants had argued that the deal traded away future rights to sue over rule changes for too little money. A second, damages-only settlement of about $5.54B won final approval in 2019, and the Second Circuit affirmed it in 2023. That deal left a separate injunctive class unresolved, and in 2024 the court rejected a proposed settlement of that class, valued at up to $30B, as inadequate. In November 2025, Visa and Mastercard offered a revised deal that the parties value at about $38B in merchant savings through 2031.
The revised deal would cut credit interchange by 10 basis points for five years and cap standard consumer card rates at 1.25% for eight years. Merchants could also decline some premium cards and add surcharges. Walmart, the National Retail Federation, NACS, the Merchants Payments Coalition, and several consumer groups objected. Walmart also asked the court to split the class, arguing that large national retailers’ interests diverge from those of smaller merchants. The objectors argue that the fee cuts are smaller in real terms than in the rejected 2024 deal and that network assessment fees remain uncapped.
The objectors also say the right to decline premium cards is largely symbolic because so many transactions run on rewards cards. On June 9, 2026, Judge Brian M. Cogan, who inherited the case after Judge Margo K. Brodie retired, granted preliminary approval. He said it was too early to tell whether the objections reflected broad merchant sentiment or a vocal minority. On September 15, 2026, more than 900 merchants and trade groups, joined by 29 large merchants, asked the court to reject the deal. A final fairness hearing is set for November 16, 2026, and objectors have said they will appeal any final approval to the Second Circuit.
Timeline 14 events
-
FilingMerchants file objections seeking rejection of settlement
More than 900 merchants and trade associations asked Judge Cogan to reject the proposed $38B injunctive-relief settlement ahead of the final fairness hearing. A group of 29 large merchants, including Cigna, DoorDash, General Motors, and Peet’s Coffee, joined them.
-
OtherCourt approves second initial distribution from 2019 damages settlement fund
Acting on a May 26, 2026, motion by class counsel, Judge Cogan approved a second initial distribution from the $5.54B 2019 damages settlement. It covers claimants whose payment eligibility is now certain, with payment anticipated in September 2026.
Payment Card Settlement | Official Court-Authorized Website - Frequently Asked QuestionsVisa/Mastercard Interchange Fee SettlementVisa-Mastercard swipe fee fund has paid $414M
-
JudgmentJudge Cogan grants preliminary approval over objections
Judge Brian Cogan preliminarily approved the settlement, saying it was too early to know whether the objections reflected broad merchant consensus or a vocal minority. Objectors said they would appeal any final approval to the Second Circuit.
Judge preliminarily approves Visa, Mastercard $38B swipe fee dealCourt approves Visa-Mastercard settlement
-
HearingCogan holds hearing on preliminary approval, hears merchant objections
At a nearly three-hour hearing, large merchants including Walmart objected through counsel to the revised $38B settlement, while Visa, Mastercard, and class counsel urged approval. Cogan did not rule from the bench and said a written ruling would follow.
Visa, Mastercard defend card fee settlementRetailers Object to $200 Billion Visa-Mastercard Swipe Fee SettlementCourt approves Visa-Mastercard settlement
-
FilingMerchants seek partial summary judgment against damages settlement release
Three Damages Class merchants filed the motion in MDL 1720. They sought a declaration that the forward-looking release in the Amended Settlement Agreement is invalid and unenforceable under federal law.
VISA INC. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026)Visa, Mastercard face new suit over card feesVisa, Mastercard face new suit over card feesMerchants File New Suit Over Visa and Mastercard Fees
-
FilingWalmart and merchant groups object to the new settlement
Walmart asked the court to split the merchant class, arguing that large national retailers’ interests diverge from those of smaller merchants. The National Retail Federation, NACS, and consumer groups filed similar objections in the following days.
Consumer groups attack card settlementWalmart wants out of card class
-
SettlementVisa and Mastercard propose revised settlement valued at about $38B
The networks proposed a 10 basis point interchange cut for five years and a 1.25% cap on standard consumer card rates for eight years. Merchants would also gain rights to decline some premium cards and add surcharges.
-
OrderCourt rejects proposed 2024 injunctive-relief settlement
The district court found the proposed fee cuts and rule changes inadequate and declined to grant preliminary approval, sending the parties back to negotiate.
Preliminary Approval of the Latest Payment Card Interchange Fee Proposed Settlement is Rejected
-
SettlementVisa and Mastercard propose second settlement covering injunctive relief
Separate from the damages settlement, the parties proposed a deal covering the remaining injunctive-relief class, valued at up to $30B. It offered a rate reduction of at least seven basis points below December 2023 levels.
-
AppealSecond Circuit affirms the 2019 settlement
The Second Circuit affirmed the district court’s final approval order. It modified only the service awards to class representatives, clearing the way for claims processing to proceed.
Payment card interchange fee and merchant discount antitrust litigation
-
JudgmentDistrict court grants final approval of $5.54B damages settlement
Judge Margo K. Brodie approved a revised, damages-only settlement of approximately $5.54B covering merchants who accepted Visa and Mastercard cards from 2004 to 2019.
-
AppealSecond Circuit vacates approval of the 2012 settlement
The appeals court vacated the district court’s approval and class certification. It found the deal improperly released future injunctive claims of merchants who had not separately opted out and sent the case back for further litigation.
In re Payment Card Interchange Fee and Merchant Discount Antitrust Litigation
-
SettlementParties reach first settlement, valued near $7.25B
Visa, Mastercard, and the banks agreed to combine a cash payment with a temporary interchange-rate reduction and rule changes. The district court approved the settlement in 2013.
Judge Approves $7.25 Billion Settlement with Visa, MasterCard and Major U.S. Banks
-
FilingMerchants sue Visa, Mastercard, and member banks over interchange fees
Retailers and trade associations filed antitrust suits alleging that Visa, Mastercard, and issuing banks conspired to fix interchange fees and imposed anticompetitive network rules. The cases were consolidated into MDL 1720 in the Eastern District of New York.
Payment Card Interchange Fee and Merchant Discount Antitrust Litigation
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeWill the district court grant final approval of the proposed $38 billion Visa and Mastercard injunctive-relief settlement by June 30, 2027?
- Cogan grants final approval64%
- Still pending on June 30, 202720%
- Cogan denies final approval13%
- Visa and Mastercard withdraw the deal3%
- Resolves by
- Jun 30, 2027in 8 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
Final approval of the $38 billion swipe-fee settlement is the most likely result, at 64%, by June 30, 2027. The strongest reason is that Judge Cogan granted preliminary approval after a full hearing on the same objections. Heavy objector opposition and the case’s history of rejected deals keep denial and delay meaningful.
How it resolves. Resolves on the first of these to appear on the MDL 1720 docket (E.D.N.Y. 1:05-md-01720) by June 30, 2027. A written order granting final approval of the proposed injunctive-relief settlement means approval, even if appealed. An order denying final approval, including one that requires class restructuring or renegotiation, means denial. A public termination or withdrawal of the agreement by Visa and Mastercard means withdrawal. If none of these has occurred, the question is still pending.
Reasoning
Starting point. Final approval rulings on U.S. federal class settlements that previously won preliminary approval: Courts grant final approval in roughly 90% or more of preliminarily approved class settlements, though contested mega-settlements fare worse
Federal courts grant final approval to the large majority of class settlements that have won preliminary approval, often above 90%. This record warrants a sizable discount because the court rejected a similar deal in 2024 and the Second Circuit vacated the 2012 approval. More than 900 objectors, including Walmart and 29 large merchants, give the court a substantial record to weigh under Rule 23(e). Still, the court granted preliminary approval on June 9, 2026, after a nearly three-hour hearing on the same core objections, and the deal improves on the rejected 2024 terms. Visa, Mastercard, and class counsel all support approval, and the networks face trial risk on claims pending since 2005. The November 16, 2026, hearing leaves about seven months for a written ruling, but the large objection record could delay it, which supports the 20% pending outcome. Denial remains the leading alternative, possibly paired with a direction to split the class. No ruling or filing has occurred since the previous forecast on September 25, 2026, so the numbers are unchanged.
Preliminary approval granted after full hearing on objections · Over 900 objectors, including Walmart and large national merchants · Court rejected the weaker 2024 injunctive-relief deal · Final fairness hearing set for November 16, 2026 · Defendants and class counsel jointly seek approval
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 16, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made