Firefighters, service members, and residents allege in South Carolina federal court that PFAS in firefighting foam made by 3M, DuPont, Tyco, BASF, and others caused cancer and other diseases. About 15,000 personal-injury cases remain pending with no bellwether trial date, while water-system claims settled for roughly $14B and four more proposed settlements were announced in October 2026. Proposals on selecting thyroid disease and ulcerative colitis bellwether cases are due November 20, 2026.
Latest development Oct 1, 2026
On October 1, 2026, the court-appointed notice administrator announced four new proposed PFAS settlements with public water systems in MDL No. 2873. The settling defendants are Carrier ($129.2M), Archroma ($14M), Amerex ($4M), and Nation Ford ($1.875M), together worth more than $149M. Public water systems may opt out or object to the settlements through late 2026.
Why it matters
The personal-injury track will decide how courts and parties value claims that PFAS exposure caused cancer and other diseases. The outcome affects 3M, DuPont, and other foam makers, and thousands of firefighters, service members, and residents.
Background
Aqueous film-forming foam (AFFF), used for decades to fight fuel fires at military bases and airports, contains PFOA, PFOS, and related “forever chemicals.” These chemicals persist in groundwater and human blood. In December 2018, the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation (JPML) centralized federal AFFF cases as MDL No. 2873. The panel assigned them to Judge Richard M. Gergel in the U.S. District Court for the District of South Carolina.
The docket split into two tracks: contamination claims by public water systems and personal-injury claims by firefighters, service members, and residents. The water track largely resolved in 2023 and 2024. In June 2023, 3M agreed to pay $10.3B (up to $12.5B over 13 years), and DuPont, Chemours, and Corteva agreed to pay $1.185B. In May 2024, Tyco Fire Products agreed to pay $750M and BASF $316.5M. The settlements, totaling roughly $14B, are now in the payout phase.
On August 15, 2025, Case Management Order No. 35 vacated the first personal-injury bellwether trial, a kidney-cancer case set for October 2025, and standardized proofs. With no new trial date set, Case Management Order No. 26B in March 2026 established a process to select a new pool of 28 bellwether plaintiffs for case-specific discovery. The pool covers kidney cancer, testicular cancer, thyroid disease, and ulcerative colitis claims. On April 1, 2026, the court denied South Carolina’s remand motion and continued pressing defendants toward a global personal-injury resolution. A court-appointed special master is developing a points-based settlement matrix.
As of June 2026, JPML counts showed about 15,000 pending cases, and practitioner tallies put filed claims above 23,000. On July 30, 2026, Case Management Order No. 26O set November 20, 2026, as the deadline for proposals on selecting Group B bellwether cases and on expert discovery. On August 18, 2026, the JPML centralized non-AFFF firefighter turnout gear PFAS claims in a new MDL (No. 3191) in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota. The panel assigned it to Judge Jeffrey M. Bryan and declined Judge Gergel’s request to add the claims to MDL No. 2873. In October 2026, Simpluris, the court-appointed notice administrator, issued notice of four more proposed water-system settlements totaling more than $149M.
Timeline 11 events
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SettlementNotice administrator announces four new proposed water-system PFAS settlements
Simpluris, the court-appointed notice administrator for the public water system settlements, issued notice of the additional proposed settlements. They are with Carrier, Archroma, Amerex, and Nation Ford and total more than $149M.
Notice to Public Water Systems in the United States of Four Proposed PFAS Settlements Totaling More Than $149 MillionNotice to Public Water Systems in the United States of Four Proposed PFAS Settlements Totaling More Than $149 Million
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OtherJPML creates separate MDL for turnout gear claims
The panel centralized non-AFFF firefighter turnout gear PFAS claims in a new MDL in the District of Minnesota before Judge Jeffrey M. Bryan. It declined to add them to MDL No. 2873 despite a request from Judge Gergel.
PFAS Turnout Gear Buyer Lawsuits Get Consolidated In Minn.JPML Transfers PFAS Firefighting Gear Lawsuits to Minnesota Before Hon. Jeffrey M. Bryan
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OrderCourt sets deadline for Group B bellwether selection proposals
Under Case Management Order 26O, Judge Gergel set November 20, 2026, as the deadline for proposals on selecting Group B personal-injury bellwether cases. Group B covers thyroid disease and ulcerative colitis claims, and the deadline also applies to expert discovery proposals.
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OtherFiled claims pass 23,000 by practitioner tallies
JPML-reported pending cases stood at about 15,000.
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OrderJudge Gergel keeps South Carolina PFAS cases federal, presses settlement
The court denied South Carolina’s remand motion. It continued urging 3M, DuPont, BASF, Tyco (Johnson Controls), and others toward a global personal-injury resolution.
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OrderCourt sets process to select new 28-plaintiff bellwether pool
Case Management Order No. 26B covered kidney cancer, testicular cancer, thyroid disease, and ulcerative colitis claims. The selected plaintiffs were to proceed to case-specific discovery after the original kidney-cancer bellwether was vacated.
Latest Legal Developments | AFFF Lawsuit (2026)Firefighting Foam Lawsuit | AFFF June 2026 Settlement Update
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OrderCourt vacates first personal-injury bellwether trial
Case Management Order No. 35 took the October 2025 kidney-cancer trial off the calendar and standardized proofs for the growing personal-injury docket. The court set no new trial date.
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SettlementTyco and BASF settle water claims
Tyco Fire Products agreed to pay $750M and BASF $316.5M, substantially completing the water-utility track at roughly $14B across defendants.
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Settlement3M agrees to pay $10.3B to public water systems
The deal, worth up to $12.5B over 13 years, covered PFAS testing and remediation.
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SettlementDuPont, Chemours, and Corteva settle water claims for $1.185B
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FilingJPML centralizes AFFF litigation in South Carolina
The Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation consolidated federal AFFF cases before Judge Richard M. Gergel as MDL No. 2873.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeWill 3M or the DuPont, Chemours, and Corteva group announce a global personal-injury settlement in the AFFF MDL by June 30, 2028?
- 3M or DuPont settles injury claims58%
- No global deal on June 30, 202842%
- Resolves by
- Jun 30, 2028in 20 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
A global personal-injury settlement by 3M or the DuPont group by June 30, 2028, is somewhat more likely than not, at 58%. Both defendants already paid about $11.5 billion on the water track, and a court-appointed special master is building a points-based injury matrix under steady pressure from the court.
How it resolves. Resolves as a settlement if, by June 30, 2028, 3M, or DuPont de Nemours, Chemours, and Corteva jointly or separately, publicly announce an agreement, term sheet, or court-filed settlement program meant to resolve substantially all pending personal-injury claims against it in MDL No. 2873. Company filings, court orders, or a special master’s report count as evidence. Settlements of single bellwether cases or of water-system claims do not count. Court approval is not required. Otherwise resolves as still pending.
Reasoning
Starting point. Mature federal mass-tort MDLs with more than 10,000 personal-injury claims and an active court-driven settlement process: Most large mass-tort MDLs end in a global or inventory settlement, often seven to ten years after centralization. Roughly 50% to 65% reach that point within any given two-year window once a settlement matrix is underway.
Large mass-tort MDLs usually end in global deals, and this docket is nearly eight years old with a special master drafting a points-based settlement matrix. The court denied remand on April 1, 2026, and keeps pressing defendants toward a global resolution, which supports a deal within the window. The $14 billion water track shows 3M and DuPont will pay to cap uncertainty, and continuing water deals in October 2026 confirm that process still works. Against this, the court vacated the only scheduled bellwether trial, and Group B selection proposals are not due until November 20, 2026, so verdict pressure may not arrive before 2028. Rising claim counts above 23,000 and a separate turnout-gear MDL in Minnesota weaken the closure value of any deal. The leading alternative is that defendants wait for bellwether trials or expert rulings before committing, as 3M did in the earplug MDL. The previous forecast asked the same question earlier today, and nothing in the record has changed, so the numbers stand.
Special master developing points-based personal-injury settlement matrix · Water-track deals show defendants will pay for global peace · No bellwether trial date reduces near-term verdict pressure · Growing claim inventory and separate turnout-gear MDL complicate closure · Court actively pushing defendants toward global resolution
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 4, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made