Tens of thousands of U.S. plaintiffs allege in federal and state courts that Monsanto’s glyphosate-based Roundup weedkiller causes non-Hodgkin lymphoma. In June 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court held that federal law preempts label-based failure-to-warn claims. On October 29, 2026, a St. Louis County jury found for Monsanto on design-defect claims, and a St. Louis court has yet to rule on a proposed $7.25B class settlement.
Latest development Oct 29, 2026
On October 29, 2026, a St. Louis County jury unanimously found for Monsanto on three plaintiffs’ claims that design defects in Roundup caused their non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The trial tested design-defect theories pursued after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Durnell ruling preempted label-based failure-to-warn claims. A Missouri judge has yet to rule on final approval of the proposed $7.25B class settlement.
Why it matters
The approval decision will determine whether a $7.25B class settlement can resolve current and future non-Hodgkin lymphoma claims against Monsanto. The case also tests which design-defect and negligence claims survive after the U.S. Supreme Court held that federal law preempts label-based failure-to-warn claims.
Background
The litigation grew after the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified glyphosate as “probably carcinogenic” in 2015. Plaintiffs allege that Monsanto’s glyphosate-based Roundup weedkiller causes non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Federal cases have proceeded since October 2016 in multidistrict litigation (MDL) in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. Many more proceed in state courts. Bayer AG inherited the litigation through its $63B acquisition of Monsanto.
Bayer’s core defense is federal preemption: it argues that the federal labeling regime of the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) bars state-law failure-to-warn claims. Jury verdicts in Johnson v. Monsanto ($289M, August 2018), Hardeman, and Pilliod ($2B, May 2019) pushed Bayer toward settlement, although the Johnson and Pilliod verdicts were later reduced. In June 2020, Bayer announced a settlement framework of roughly $10.9B, but tens of thousands of claims were never resolved and new cases continue to be filed. In June 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear the Hardeman preemption appeal. Bayer has committed more than $18B to resolving the litigation.
In August 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit accepted a version of the preemption argument in Schaffner, deepening a circuit split. In March 2025, a jury in Cobb County State Court in Georgia awarded $2.1B in Barnes v. Monsanto. In September 2025, the Missouri Supreme Court declined review of a Cole County judgment that had been cut from a $1.56B verdict to $611M, making it final. The U.S. Supreme Court granted certiorari in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell in January 2026 and heard argument on April 27, 2026. On June 25, 2026, it held 7-2 that FIFRA preempts label-based failure-to-warn claims and reversed a Missouri judgment, leaving design-defect, negligence, and other non-label theories intact.
In February 2026, Monsanto announced a $7.25B nationwide class settlement of current and future non-Hodgkin lymphoma claims, funded over up to 21 years. After the Circuit Court for the City of St. Louis granted preliminary approval on March 4, 2026, objectors removed the case, King v. Monsanto, to federal court. A federal judge remanded it on June 17, 2026, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit dismissed the objectors’ appeal on August 27, 2026. After two postponements, Judge Timothy Boyer held the final fairness hearing on September 14, 2026, and has not yet ruled. On October 29, 2026, after a trial that opened on September 29, a St. Louis County jury unanimously found for Monsanto on three plaintiffs’ design-defect claims.
Timeline 19 events
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JudgmentJury returns defense verdict for Monsanto in St. Louis trial
A St. Louis County jury unanimously found for Monsanto in a trial brought by three women who alleged Roundup caused their non-Hodgkin lymphoma via design defects. The case tested whether design-defect claims survive the Supreme Court’s Durnell preemption ruling.
Monsanto Wins First Roundup Trial Since SCOTUS Invalidated Key ClaimBayer wins Roundup weedkiller cancer trial, awaits separate rulingMonsanto unanimously wins first Roundup™ trial since U.S. Supreme Court decision
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HearingSt. Louis County trial opens on design-defect Roundup claims
A Missouri jury trial began for three plaintiffs who allege that Monsanto failed to adequately test Roundup. They pursue design-defect claims framed as surviving the U.S. Supreme Court’s Durnell ruling on failure-to-warn claims.
Bayer Faces Trial Test of Remaining Roundup Claims After Supreme Court WinOpenings Heard In Closely Watched 'Post-Durnell' Monsanto Roundup Trial: Watch Online via CVNFirst Post-Durnell Monsanto Roundup Trial Begins In Missouri: Watch Gavel-to-Gavel via CVNBayer Faces Trial Test of Remaining Roundup Claims After Supreme Court Win
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HearingMissouri court holds final fairness hearing on $7.25B Roundup class settlement
Judge Timothy Boyer of the Circuit Court for the City of St. Louis heard Monsanto urge approval and objecting plaintiffs’ lawyers challenge the deal’s fairness. He did not issue an immediate ruling.
Bayer Faces Test of $7.25B Roundup Settlement In Missouri CourtJudge to Begin Consideration of Bayer's $7.25 Billion Roundup SettlementJudge weighs "fairness" of $7.25 billion Roundup settlement for cancer victimsBayer urges court to approve $7.25 billion Monsanto Roundup settlement that could limit its future liabilities
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AppealEighth Circuit dismisses objectors’ appeal of remand order
The court also denied a supplemental petition for permission to appeal. The objectors had argued that the federal MDL judge, not a Missouri state court, should handle the settlement.
8th Circuit Dismisses Appeal of $7.2 Billion Roundup Settlement Proposal DisputeUS court dismisses appeal over objections to Roundup dealManaging the Roundup Litigation
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OrderMissouri court reschedules fairness hearing to September 14, 2026
The court granted a joint motion by Monsanto and class counsel to move the hearing from August 19. It extended the opt-out deadline to August 21, 2026, to process opt-out revocation requests.
Managing the Roundup™ LitigationBayer Seeks to Move Roundup Settlement Hearing to SeptemberWeed Killer Class Settlement - Home
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OtherBayer moves U.S. glyphosate business into new entity Ruveon LLC
The new St. Louis-based subsidiary, led by CEO Alfonso Alba Ordonez, holds Bayer’s U.S. glyphosate business, including Roundup. The restructuring formed part of Bayer’s response to the litigation after the Durnell ruling.
Bayer Group to consolidate U.S. glyphosate business into distinct entity operating as RuveonBayer Consolidates U.S. Glyphosate Business Into New Entity Ruveon LLC
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OrderMissouri court reschedules Roundup fairness hearing to August 19, 2026
Judge Boyer moved the final approval hearing from its original July 9, 2026, date. The June 2026 opt-out deadline stayed unchanged.
Managing the Roundup™ LitigationRoundup Settlement 2026: $7.25 Billion Bayer Payout
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JudgmentSupreme Court holds FIFRA preempts Roundup failure-to-warn claims (7-2)
In Monsanto v. Durnell, the Court reversed a Missouri failure-to-warn judgment. The ruling left design-defect, negligence, and other non-label theories intact.
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AppealObjecting class members appeal remand order to Eighth Circuit
A federal judge had remanded the class settlement dispute, King v. Monsanto, to Missouri state court on June 17, 2026. The objectors appealed that decision.
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OrderMissouri court grants preliminary approval of class settlement
The court set an opt-out deadline of June 4, 2026. Objectors briefly removed the case to federal court before it was remanded to Missouri state court in June 2026.
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SettlementMonsanto announces $7.25B nationwide class settlement
The settlement was designed to resolve current and future non-Hodgkin lymphoma claims through a claims program funded over up to 21 years. Individual payouts were reported at roughly $6,000–$165,000.
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AppealU.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto v. Durnell
The question presented was whether FIFRA preempts a label-based failure-to-warn claim where the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has not required the warning. The Court heard argument on April 27, 2026.
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AppealMissouri Supreme Court declines review of reduced $611M Cole County judgment
The October 2023 verdict of $1.56B for four plaintiffs was cut to $611M and affirmed by the Western District Court of Appeals in May 2025. The final judgment is worth over $700M with interest.
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JudgmentGeorgia jury awards $2.1B in Barnes v. Monsanto
The jury awarded $65M in compensatory and $2B in punitive damages after a three-week trial in Cobb County State Court. Monsanto said it would appeal.
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AppealThird Circuit rules for Monsanto on FIFRA preemption in Schaffner
The ruling deepened a circuit split on whether federal law preempts state failure-to-warn claims.
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AppealU.S. Supreme Court declines to hear Hardeman preemption appeal
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SettlementBayer announces settlement framework of about $10.9B
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JudgmentPilliod jury returns $2B verdict
The verdict was later reduced.
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JudgmentJury returns $289M verdict in Johnson v. Monsanto
The verdict was later reduced.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeWill the Circuit Court for the City of St. Louis grant final approval of Monsanto’s proposed $7.25 billion Roundup class settlement by March 31, 2027?
- Boyer grants final approval74%
- Still pending on March 31, 202716%
- Objectors defeat final approval10%
- Resolves by
- Mar 31, 2027in 5 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
Judge Timothy Boyer is likely to grant final approval of the $7.25 billion Roundup class settlement by March 31, 2027 (74%). He granted preliminary approval, the objectors’ federal detour failed, and the record shows no sign the deal is in trouble.
How it resolves. Resolves to approval if, by March 31, 2027, the Circuit Court for the City of St. Louis enters an order granting final approval of the $7.25 billion class settlement in King v. Monsanto, including approval conditioned on modifications the parties accept. Resolves to denial if the court enters an order denying final approval or refusing approval unless the deal is renegotiated. Resolves to still pending if neither order has been entered by that date. Later appeals do not affect resolution.
Reasoning
Starting point. Class action settlements that have received preliminary approval and reached a final fairness hearing, adjusted for mass-tort settlements that bind future claimants: Roughly 90% of class settlements that reach a fairness hearing win final approval. Mass-tort futures classes fare worse, and a 2021 Roundup futures deal was rejected.
Most class settlements that reach a fairness hearing win final approval, but settlements that bind future mass-tort claimants draw closer scrutiny, and a 2021 Roundup futures class was rejected in federal court. Here the court granted preliminary approval, and the Eighth Circuit’s August 27, 2026, dismissal ended the objectors’ bid to move the dispute to the federal MDL. The Supreme Court’s June 2026 Durnell ruling preempted label-based failure-to-warn claims. The October 29, 2026, defense verdict on design-defect claims also shows the litigation risk class members would face without a deal, which supports a fairness finding. Objectors can still challenge the 21-year payout structure, the modest individual awards, and adequacy of representation for future claimants. Nothing in the record since the October 5, 2026, forecast moves any outcome by five points, so the numbers are unchanged. The leading alternative is delay, because the ruling has been pending about six weeks and a careful written opinion on a futures class can take months.
Preliminary approval granted and objectors’ removal effort failed · Durnell and defense verdict weaken objectors’ fairness arguments · Heightened scrutiny of classes binding future claimants · Length and complexity of a written approval opinion
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Nov 1, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made