Falcon Energy Materials, an Abu Dhabi-based graphite company, seeks about $100M from Guinea at ICSID under the 2011 Guinea-UAE investment treaty. Falcon alleges that Guinea unlawfully expropriated its Lola graphite project when it revoked the project’s exploitation license in May 2025. The tribunal, chaired by Barton Legum, was constituted on October 6, 2026.
Latest development Oct 6, 2026
On October 6, 2026, the ICSID tribunal was constituted with Barton Legum as president, appointed by agreement of the parties. Peter Turner sits as Falcon’s appointee and Fernando Mantilla-Serrano as Guinea’s.
Why it matters
The claim is one of several ICSID cases brought by Emirati investors against Guinea under the same treaty, including a $28.9B bauxite claim. It will test whether Guinea owes treaty compensation for the mining licenses it revoked in 2025.
Background
Falcon Energy Materials plc is an Abu Dhabi-based company listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. It held the exploitation license for the Lola graphite project in southeastern Guinea, which, according to Falcon, Guinea granted in 2019 under its 2011 Mining Code. The project was to supply graphite to a battery anode plant Falcon is developing in Morocco. La Mancha, the investment group chaired by Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, is Falcon’s largest shareholder.
On May 14, 2025, Guinea revoked the Lola license by a decree signed by the country’s president. Falcon said the decree also covered 50 gold, bauxite, and diamond permits. It said it had received no written notice of the revocation, called the decree illegal under Guinea’s Mining Code, and said it would pursue legal remedies in Guinea and internationally. Falcon then notified Guinea of a dispute under the 2011 Guinea-UAE bilateral investment treaty (BIT), which started a six-month period for an amicable settlement. Falcon says it kept negotiating after that period ended but that Guinea would not offer compensation.
On March 16, 2026, Falcon announced that it had filed a request for arbitration with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). It alleges that Guinea unlawfully expropriated the project and breached other treaty protections. Its initial compensation estimate is $100M for the loss of its Guinean assets and other damages. ICSID registered the case on March 31, 2026, as ICSID Case No. ARB/26/13. LALIVE acts for Falcon and ASAFO & Co. for Guinea.
The tribunal was constituted on October 6, 2026, with Barton Legum as president by agreement of the parties. Peter Turner is Falcon’s appointee and Fernando Mantilla-Serrano is Guinea’s. Guinea faces other ICSID claims by Emirati investors under the same treaty. In Axis International Limited v. Republic of Guinea (ICSID Case No. ARB/26/3), a bauxite miner seeks $28.9B over the revocation of its Boffa permit in May 2025. Nimba Investment LLC and others v. Republic of Guinea (ICSID Case No. ARB/25/56) was registered on December 22, 2025.
Timeline 9 events
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OrderICSID tribunal is constituted
The tribunal was constituted under Article 37(2)(b) of the ICSID Convention with Barton Legum presiding.
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OrderTribunal is constituted with Barton Legum as president
Barton Legum accepted his appointment as president by agreement of the parties, and the tribunal was constituted the same day.
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OrderFernando Mantilla-Serrano accepts appointment as Guinea’s arbitrator
Fernando Mantilla-Serrano accepted his appointment as arbitrator by the respondent.
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OrderPeter Turner accepts appointment as Falcon’s arbitrator
Peter Turner accepted his appointment as arbitrator by the claimant.
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OrderICSID registers Falcon’s request for arbitration
The Secretary-General of ICSID registered the request as ICSID Case No. ARB/26/13.
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FilingFalcon announces a $100M ICSID claim against Guinea
Falcon said it had filed a request for arbitration under the 2011 Guinea-UAE bilateral investment treaty, with an initial compensation estimate of $100M. It engaged LALIVE to act for it.
Falcon Energy Materials release, March 16, 2026Ecofin Agency
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OtherFalcon calls the revocation illegal and vows legal remedies
Falcon said it had received no written notice of an intention to revoke the license and that the decree breached Guinea’s Mining Code. It said it would pursue remedies in Guinea and internationally.
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OtherGuinea decree revokes dozens of mining permits
Guinea’s presidential decree canceled more than 50 exploration and mining permits nationwide, including Falcon’s 2019 Lola exploitation license.
Falcon's $100M Guinea ICSID claim: Lola graphite project risks for mine planners
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OtherGuinea revokes Falcon’s Lola graphite exploitation license by decree
A decree signed by Guinea’s president revoked the license, which Guinea had granted in 2019. Falcon said the decree also covered 50 gold, bauxite, and diamond permits.
Falcon Energy Materials release, March 16, 2026Falcon Energy Materials release, May 16, 2025
Experimental AI forecast
How it is made- Predicted outcome
- Insufficient evidence
- Model confidence
- Low
The record is too thin for a forecast. The tribunal was constituted on October 6, 2026, but there is no procedural timetable, no word on whether Guinea will object to jurisdiction, and no settlement signal. A first procedural order setting the schedule, a bifurcation request, or reported settlement talks would make a forecast possible.
Tribunal constituted October 6, 2026, with no timetable yet · No jurisdictional objections or bifurcation request on record · No public signal of settlement talks since filing · Parallel Emirati claims against Guinea under the same treaty
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 18, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made