UMG and Sony allege in Massachusetts federal court that AI music generator Suno copied their recordings to train its models, and a second suit targets Suno’s v6 models. Fact discovery in the original case has closed, but third-party subpoena disputes continue, with DistroKid’s response to a data subpoena due November 6, 2026. Dispositive fair-use motions in the original case are due April 9, 2027.
Latest development Nov 2, 2026
On November 2, 2026, UMG, Sony, and DistroKid jointly told the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that they are working toward resolving their dispute over a discovery subpoena. The labels are seeking to enforce the subpoena, which was issued in the original Massachusetts case against Suno. DistroKid’s response is due by November 6, 2026.
Why it matters
The case will test whether training AI music models on copyrighted recordings is fair use, and what statutory damages a developer may owe for unlicensed training. The answer affects labels, artists, and generative-audio companies, several of which have already settled on licensing terms.
Background
On June 24, 2024, the major record labels filed RIAA-coordinated complaints against AI music generators Suno, Inc. and Uncharted Labs, Inc. (Udio). They sued Suno in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts and Udio in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The labels allege that both companies copied recordings at scale to train generative music models. They seek statutory damages of up to $150,000 per willful infringement. Suno has acknowledged training on essentially all reasonable-quality audio available on the open internet and stakes its defense on fair use. In September 2025, the labels amended the Suno complaint to add Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) anti-circumvention claims, alleging that Suno stream-ripped recordings from YouTube.
On October 29, 2025, UMG settled with Udio, pairing a compensatory settlement with a licensed AI platform to launch in 2026. Warner settled with Udio and then, on November 25, 2025, with Suno. Under the Suno settlement, Warner received a multimillion-dollar payment, licensed-model commitments, and artist opt-in rights, and Suno acquired Songkick. The Massachusetts court entered Warner’s dismissal from the Suno case on January 28, 2026. Independent artists have also filed follow-on class actions, and a musicians’ union has sued over the settlements themselves. By April 2026, UMG and Sony’s own licensing talks with Suno had reached an impasse over whether AI-generated tracks may leave Suno’s platform.
On May 21, 2026, UMG and Sony moved to add 61,026 fingerprint-identified recordings, which would raise maximum statutory exposure to roughly $9B. Suno opposed, citing delay. On June 30, 2026, Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein refused to let Sony add 30,442 recordings to the Udio case, holding that the addition would materially alter it. The same day, the Massachusetts court set fact discovery in the Suno case to close on September 30, 2026, with dispositive fair-use motions due April 9, 2027. On July 20, 2026, Sony filed a second suit against Udio in the Southern District of New York over 30,117 additional recordings. On July 31, 2026, the Munich I Regional Court held in GEMA’s parallel case that Suno’s U.S. training and reproduction in the model infringed German copyright in six compositions. On August 18, 2026, Chief Judge F. Dennis Saylor IV allowed the DMCA stream-ripping claim. He denied the bid to add 61,026 recordings without prejudice, keeping the case at 560 works.
On September 18, 2026, UMG and Sony filed a new suit against Suno in the same court over its v6 model family, covering 60,202 recordings. On October 14, 2026, the labels asked a federal court in San Francisco to compel Suno investors Bond Capital and Menlo Ventures to comply with third-party discovery subpoenas. On October 20, 2026, Suno answered the second complaint, admitting that it has not deleted all sound recordings used to train its AI models. On October 26, 2026, a court ruled that the labels may depose a former Menlo Ventures executive over a deleted social media post, despite the close of fact discovery. On November 2, 2026, UMG, Sony, and DistroKid told the Southern District of New York that they are working toward resolving a data subpoena dispute. DistroKid’s response is due by November 6, 2026.
Timeline 15 events
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OrderLabels and DistroKid report progress toward resolution
UMG, Sony, and DistroKid jointly told the court they are working toward a resolution of the data subpoena dispute, with DistroKid’s response due by November 6, 2026.
UMG, Sony, and DistroKid tell court they are 'working on a resolution' in dispute over AI music data for Suno caseDistroKid to Respond to UMG Subpoena Demand by November 6thUMG and Sony Close to Resolution with DistroKid Over AI Music Data Dispute
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OrderCourt clears deposition of former Menlo Ventures executive
A court ruled that UMG and Sony may depose a former Menlo Ventures executive over a deleted social media post. The post concerned shifting personal listening to Suno, and the ruling came despite the close of fact discovery.
Universal and Sony cleared to depose ex-Menlo Ventures exec over deleted post: 'I've personally shifted most of my listening to Suno'Major Labels to Depose Menlo Vet C.C. Gong Over Suno TweetCourt Clears Deposition of Suno Investor Ex-Principal C.C. Gong
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FilingSuno answers second complaint, admits retaining training data
Suno filed a 44-page answer to UMG and Sony’s second Massachusetts complaint, admitting it has not deleted all sound recordings used to train its AI models.
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FilingLabels move to compel Suno investors to honor subpoenas
UMG and Sony asked a San Francisco federal court to compel Suno investors Bond Capital and Menlo Ventures to comply with third-party subpoenas. The subpoenas sought discovery for the labels’ copyright litigation against Suno.
UMG and Sony ask court to force DistroKid to hand over AI music data for Suno caseMLC, Apple Music, & Others Face Subpoenas Amid UMG v. Suno
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FilingUMG and Sony file new lawsuit against Suno over v6 model
The complaint alleged that Suno’s v6 models are “the fruit of the same poisoned tree” because they were trained on outputs of its earlier models. It covered 60,202 recordings, and Warner, which helped supply licensed content for v6, did not join.
Universal and Sony sue Suno for a second time, claiming platform's v6 models are 'the fruit of the same poisoned tree'Sony Music, Universal Music Group Sue Suno Over Label-Backed Model: 'Fruit of the Same Poisoned Tree'UMG, Sony Music File Second Lawsuit Against Suno Over AI Music Generator's New ModelAs Suno releases new AI music model with label partners, UMG & Sony Music take further legal actionUMG Recordings, Inc. et al v. Suno, Inc. et al 1:2026cv14275
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OrderJudge Saylor denies motion to add 61,026 recordings, allows DMCA stream-ripping claim
The DMCA claim targeted alleged YouTube stream-ripping. The denial was without prejudice and kept the Massachusetts case at 560 works.
Judge clears UMG and Sony to accuse Suno of pirating YouTube via 'stream ripping' to train its AISuno inks global licensing deal with Believe
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JudgmentMunich I Regional Court rules for GEMA in parallel case against Suno
The court held that Suno infringed GEMA’s rights in six compositions by training on and reproducing them. It granted an injunction and ordered disclosure of revenues, with damages still to be quantified.
GEMA wins court ruling on breach of copyright by AI music firm SunoSuno loses GEMA case as Munich court sets 250,000 euro penalty per breach
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FilingSony files second New York suit against Udio
The suit in the Southern District of New York asserted infringement of 30,117 sound recordings beyond those in the original case.
Sony Music sues Udio again, asserting over 30,000 recordings a judge barred the major from adding to its original caseSony Music Files Another Lawsuit Against Udio, Alleges AI Music Generator Copied 30,000 Songs to Train Models
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OrderUdio court denies Sony expansion as Suno court resets schedule
Judge Hellerstein held that adding Sony’s 30,442 works would materially alter the Udio case. The Massachusetts court set fact discovery to close on September 30, 2026, and dispositive fair-use motions for April 9, 2027.
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OrderUMG and Sony move to add 61,026 recordings
Audio-fingerprinting matches from discovery would push maximum statutory exposure to roughly $9B. Suno opposed on June 4, citing delay.
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OtherUMG and Sony talks with Suno hit impasse
Licensing negotiations stalled over whether AI-generated tracks may be exported beyond Suno’s platform. A negotiator reported no path forward on the current proposal.
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SettlementWarner settles with Suno
Warner Music Group received a multimillion-dollar payment plus licensed-model commitments and artist opt-in rights, and Suno acquired Songkick. Warner’s dismissal was entered on January 28, 2026.
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SettlementUMG settles with Udio
Universal paired a compensatory settlement with license agreements and a subscription AI platform to launch in 2026.
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OrderLabels add DMCA stream-ripping claims
The amended complaint alleged that Suno circumvented YouTube’s technical protections to rip audio for training, adding anti-circumvention claims to the copyright counts.
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FilingMajor labels sue Suno and Udio
RIAA-coordinated complaints in Massachusetts (Suno) and New York (Udio) alleged mass copying of recordings to train AI music generators. The labels sought up to $150,000 per work.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeWill UMG and Sony settle with Suno, or will the Massachusetts court rule on fair use in the original case, by March 31, 2028?
- UMG and Sony settle with Suno44%
- Still pending on March 31, 202829%
- Court rejects Suno’s fair-use defense10%
- Split fair-use ruling10%
- Court finds Suno’s training fair use7%
- Resolves by
- Mar 31, 2028in 17 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
Settlement between UMG, Sony, and Suno is the most likely result by March 31, 2028, at 44%. Warner and UMG have already settled with Suno or Udio on licensing terms. Fair-use summary judgment briefing due April 9, 2027, will raise pressure on both sides before any ruling.
How it resolves. Resolves on the first qualifying event in UMG Recordings v. Suno, No. 1:24-cv-11611 (D. Mass.), on or before March 31, 2028. Settlement: UMG and Sony both publicly announce a settlement or license resolving their claims against Suno, or file a stipulated dismissal. A ruling: the court decides fair use on summary judgment and either rejects the defense for the training at issue, accepts it, or splits (fair use for some conduct but not other, or for some works or theories only). Otherwise the case is still pending.
Reasoning
Starting point. U.S. copyright suits against generative AI developers over training data, and federal civil cases reaching summary judgment: Most federal civil cases settle before trial, roughly two-thirds or more. In AI training cases, several defendants have settled or licensed after or near key rulings, as Anthropic did after its 2025 fair-use ruling.
Most federal civil cases settle, and AI training disputes have trended toward licensing deals, including Warner with Suno and UMG with Udio. That pulls settlement above any single ruling outcome. Against that, UMG and Sony talks reached an impasse in April 2026, and the labels escalated with a second suit over v6 and aggressive investor subpoenas. Suno’s admission that it retained training data and the surviving DMCA stream-ripping claim strengthen the labels’ hand and raise Suno’s exposure, while the German GEMA judgment adds pressure abroad. Dispositive motions are due April 9, 2027, so a ruling could arrive by early 2028, but complex summary judgment decisions often take many months, keeping a large pending share. If the court rules, a split result or rejection of fair use is somewhat more likely than a clean defense win, given the stream-ripping claim and prior AI fair-use rulings that distinguished pirated or unlawfully acquired data. The previous forecast asked the same question, and nothing in the record since October 27, 2026, moved any outcome by five points, as the DistroKid subpoena progress is routine discovery. The leading alternative is that the case remains pending, with summary judgment fully briefed but undecided by March 31, 2028.
Industry pattern of licensing settlements by Warner and UMG · April 2027 fair-use motions create a settlement pressure point · Suno’s admitted retention of training data and DMCA claim · Stalled UMG and Sony licensing talks over track exports · Pace of a complex summary judgment ruling
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Nov 5, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made
Disclosure: Anthropic, which makes the model that wrote this forecast, competes with or has commercial ties to a party to this case.