AerCap and five other lessors sued their insurers in the High Court in London, claiming policy cover for jets stranded in Russia after 2022 sanctions. In June 2025, the Commercial Court held that war-risks, not all-risks, cover responds, and AerCap’s award with interest later reached about $1.2B. The Court of Appeal has granted the war-risks insurers permission to appeal and will hear the five-day appeal in February 2027.
Latest development Oct 5, 2026
On October 5, 2026, the trial of the Operator Policy claims opened in the Commercial Court. AerCap and other lessors claim as additional insureds against Russian insurers and reinsurers under the Russian airlines’ own Russian-law policies. The trial runs in parallel with the war-risks insurers’ appeal of the June 2025 Lessor Policy judgment, which the Court of Appeal will hear in February 2027.
Why it matters
The appeal will decide when a lessor’s loss occurs if a state detains leased aircraft, and whether all-risks or war-risks cover then responds. The answer will shape how an industry-wide loss estimated at some $10B is shared between lessors and insurers.
Background
Sanctions imposed after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine obliged Western lessors to terminate their leases with Russian airlines. The aircraft did not come back. On March 10, 2022, Russian Government Resolution No. 311 banned their re-export, stranding hundreds of jets in an industry-wide loss estimated at some $10B.
In June 2022, AerCap Ireland Ltd issued the lead claim in the Commercial Court of the High Court in London under its own contingent and possessed cover. The insurers sued include AIG Europe S.A., Lloyd’s Insurance Company S.A., Chubb European Group SE, Fidelis Underwriting Ltd, and Swiss Re International SE. AerCap initially claimed about $3.5B under the all-risks section, against a $1.2B war-risks aggregate limit. Parallel claims by DAE, Falcon, KDAC, Merx, and Genesis were tried with it before Mr Justice Butcher between October 2024 and February 2025, with 13 legal teams involved. KDAC settled during trial.
On June 11, 2025, Butcher J handed down a 230-page judgment ([2025] EWHC 1430 (Comm)). He held that the aircraft were lost on March 10, 2022, through the Russian state’s restraint or detention and that the war-risks sections, not the all-risks sections, respond. The lessors recover subject to policy limits and credit for substantial pre-trial settlements with the Russian airlines’ insurers. On October 6, 2025, after a September 2025 hearing, the court refused the insurers permission to appeal. It awarded AerCap about $234M in interest, taking AerCap’s recovery from just over $1B before interest to a total award of about $1.2B.
On October 9, 2025, the war-risks insurers applied to the Court of Appeal. On March 10, 2026, the Court of Appeal refused some grounds on the papers but directed an oral hearing. After that hearing on March 31, 2026, it granted permission on all grounds and ordered a five-day appeal hearing, now scheduled for February 2027. On May 13, 2026, Mr Justice Picken struck out and summarily dismissed related contribution claims of roughly $340M by Chubb and Fidelis against war-risk reinsurers ([2026] EWHC 1134 (Comm)). On October 5, 2026, the separate trial of the lessors’ Operator Policy claims against Russian insurers and reinsurers opened in the Commercial Court.
Timeline 11 events
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HearingOperator Policy claims trial opens in Commercial Court
The trial of AerCap’s and other lessors’ claims against Russian insurers and reinsurers under the Russian airlines’ Operator Policies began in the Commercial Court. These claims, concerning rights as additional insureds under Russian-law policies, run parallel to the Lessor Policy claims now on appeal.
New Russia Aircraft Trial Tests Claims Against ReinsurersCommercial Court hands down judgment in the contribution claims in the Russian Aircraft litigationEarly Observations Tested: The Russian Aircraft Lessor Policy Claims 4 Years On
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OrderCourt of Appeal schedules war-risks insurers’ appeal for February 2027
AerCap disclosed in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing that the five-day appeal hearing brought by Chubb, Fidelis, and Lloyd’s insurers is scheduled for February 2027. If the insurers prevail, AerCap may have to repay approximately $1.2B plus interest.
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JudgmentMr Justice Picken strikes out Chubb and Fidelis contribution claims
In a related proceeding ([2026] EWHC 1134 (Comm)), the court dismissed roughly $340M in claims against war-risk reinsurers seeking to recoup lessor-policy payments to AerCap and Merx. The claims concerned cover under separate operator policies.
Commercial Court strikes out LP insurers' contribution claims worth $340+ million in Russian aircraft litigationInsurers lose $340mn Russian aircraft claim
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OrderCourt of Appeal grants war-risks insurers permission on all grounds
The court granted permission after a one-day oral hearing on March 31, 2026. It ordered a five-day appeal hearing, with the date to be confirmed.
Russian aircraft policy claims: update on permission to appeal applicationsWar Risk Insurers Win Bid to Appeal UK Ruling on Jets Lost in Russia
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OrderCourt of Appeal refuses some grounds on the papers, orders oral hearing
The court found no real prospect of success on certain grounds. It directed that the insurers be heard orally on all proposed grounds without requiring submissions from the lessors.
Russian Aircraft Policy Claims: Update On Permission To Appeal Applications
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AppealWar-risks insurers go to the Court of Appeal
After Butcher J refused permission, Fidelis, Chubb, and Lloyd’s Insurance Company applied to the Court of Appeal on behalf of the remaining war-risks insurers.
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JudgmentCommercial Court awards AerCap $234M interest
Following a September 2025 hearing, the court refused the war-risks insurers permission to appeal the June 2025 judgment. It awarded AerCap approximately $234M in interest, bringing the total award to approximately $1.2B.
AerCap Ireland Limited v AIG Europe SA & Ors (Russian Aircraft Lessor Policy Claims) [2025] EWHC 2529 (Comm)Russian Aircraft Policy Claims: High Court Denies Permission To Appeal And Orders Payment Of InterestRussian Aircraft Policy Claims: Update on appeal and costsAerCap Secures $107 Million Insurance Payout For Five Russia-Stranded Jets
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JudgmentButcher J holds war-risks cover responds to stranded jets
Butcher J held that the aircraft were lost on March 10, 2022, through the Russian government’s restraint or detention, engaging war-risks rather than all-risks cover. He put AerCap’s recovery at just over $1B before interest.
[2025] EWHC 1430 (Comm), approved judgmentInsurance Journal appeal report
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HearingJoint trial opens before Mr Justice Butcher
Six lessor claims were tried together over about 50 hearing days from October 2, 2024, to February 2025. KDAC settled during trial.
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FilingAerCap sues its insurers
AerCap issued the lead Commercial Court claim under its contingent and possessed policies, initially seeking about $3.5B under all-risks cover. DAE, Falcon, KDAC, Merx, and Genesis brought parallel claims that were case-managed together.
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OtherRussia bans export of leased aircraft
Government Resolution No. 311 barred re-export of foreign-leased aircraft after sanctions forced lease terminations, stranding hundreds of jets with Russian airlines.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will the war-risks insurers’ Court of Appeal challenge to the June 11, 2025 Commercial Court judgment be resolved by December 31, 2027?
- War-risks insurers’ appeal fails42%
- Lessors settle with war-risks insurers20%
- War-risks insurers win appeal14%
- Appeal partly allowed12%
- Still pending on December 31, 202712%
- Resolves by
- Dec 31, 2027in 14 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The Court of Appeal is most likely to dismiss the war-risks insurers’ appeal (42%) after the February 2027 hearing, with judgment expected during 2027. Butcher J’s loss finding rests on a 230-page judgment after about 50 trial days, which appellate courts are slow to disturb.
How it resolves. Resolves on public records such as the Court of Appeal judgment, AerCap SEC filings, or party announcements. “Appeal fails” if the Court of Appeal dismisses the appeal and leaves the war-risks finding and award substantially intact. “Insurers win” if it reverses the finding that war-risks cover responds or sets aside the awards in full. “Partly allowed” if it allows some grounds and materially reduces or remits the awards. “Settle” if the lead lessors (including AerCap) settle with the appellant war-risks insurers and the appeal is withdrawn before judgment. “Still pending” if none of these has occurred by December 31, 2027.
Reasoning
Starting point. Civil appeals heard by the Court of Appeal of England and Wales against Commercial Court judgments after a full trial: Roughly 30% to 40% of civil appeals heard on the merits are allowed in whole or part. Findings after long trials on fact-heavy issues are reversed less often.
The base rate for Court of Appeal civil appeals is roughly 30% to 40% allowed, lower where the challenge targets evaluative findings after a long trial. Butcher J refused permission, and the Court of Appeal initially found no real prospect on some grounds. But it granted permission on all grounds after an oral hearing, which signals the questions on timing of loss and policy construction are arguable. That keeps reversal and partial success together at about 26%. With a five-day hearing in February 2027, a reserved judgment within months is likely, so pending status at December 31, 2027, stays near 12%. Settlement remains a live alternative at 20%. Many lessor claims have already settled, and the insurers face about $1.2 billion plus interest if they lose. AerCap faces repayment risk if they win. The October 5, 2026, opening of the Operator Policy trial does not move any outcome by five points, so the numbers are unchanged from the September 29, 2026, forecast. The leading alternative to dismissal is a negotiated settlement before or shortly after the hearing.
Permission granted on all grounds after oral hearing · Trial findings after 50 hearing days resist appellate reversal · Industry-wide settlement trend among lessors and insurers · About $1.2 billion award plus interest at stake · February 2027 hearing leaves time for 2027 judgment
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 18, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made