Aircraft Lessors v. Insurers (Russia): ~$4.5B Litigation

After Russian airlines kept leased jets stranded by 2022 sanctions, AerCap and five other lessors sued their own insurers in London. In June 2025, the Commercial Court held the aircraft were lost on 10 March 2022 and that war-risks cover responds, AerCap alone recovering just over $1B, and war-risks insurers now have limited permission to appeal.

LATEST DEVELOPMENT · MAR 2026

Following a one-day oral hearing on 31 March 2026 on grounds the Court of Appeal had initially refused on the papers on 10 March 2026, the Court of Appeal granted the War Risks Insurers (Chubb, Fidelis and Lloyd’s syndicates) permission to appeal on all grounds. A five-day substantive appeal hearing has been ordered, with the date still to be confirmed as of April 2026.

PREDICTED OUTCOME

AI-GENERATED · METHODOLOGY →

Claimant win ~45% likely HORIZON: appeal judgment by late 2027 CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

The most likely end state, at about 45%, is that the Court of Appeal substantially upholds Butcher J’s June 2025 judgment after a five-day hearing in late 2026 or 2027, with a reserved judgment landing between mid-2027 and late 2027 and the lessors collecting roughly $1.3bn to $1.7bn in aggregate, including just over $1bn plus interest for AerCap. The strongest driver is the shape of the first-instance decision: a 230-page ruling built on dense findings about Resolution No. 311 and the Russian state’s restraint and detention, which converts most appellate attacks into challenges to evaluative fact-finding that English appeal courts rarely disturb, and permission granted for market importance is not the same as a real prospect of reversal. The leading alternative, at roughly 30%, is a negotiated buy-out of the judgment before or shortly after the appeal hearing at something like 65 to 85 cents on the judgment sum, since AerCap and DAE have already shown a strong preference for cash certainty and KDAC settled mid-trial. A clean win for the war-risks insurers is the tail, maybe 15%, and even then the practical consequence is remission on quantum or causation rather than a zero recovery, because the loss has to sit somewhere in the tower. Watch the October 2026 operators’ reinsurance trial: an adverse read-across there sharpens the insurers’ incentive to buy peace across the whole $10bn book rather than let two inconsistent precedents harden. Interest accrual at English judgment rates plus the appellants’ exposure to indemnity-scale costs keeps a commercial deal live right up to the hearing door. Net call: lessors end up substantially where Butcher J left them, whether by affirmance or by a discounted settlement that mirrors it.

Fact-heavy 230-page trial judgment resists appellate reversal · Permission on all grounds reflects market importance, not merits strength · Lessors’ demonstrated appetite for cash settlements (KDAC, Russian insurers) · Policy limits cap upside, making judgment buy-out attractive · Parallel October 2026 reinsurance trial pressures market-wide resolution

Generated by claude-opus-5 on Aug 4, 2026, from this case’s record only. It stands until a major development changes the record. Not legal or investment advice. How predictions are made →

BACKGROUND

When sanctions following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine obliged Western lessors to terminate their leases with Russian airlines, the aircraft did not come back: on 10 March 2022 Government Resolution No. 311 banned their re-export, stranding hundreds of jets in an industry-wide loss estimated at some $10B. AerCap issued the lead Commercial Court claim under its own contingent and possessed cover in June 2022, initially about $3.5B under the all-risks section, against a $1.2B war-risks aggregate limit, and parallel claims by DAE, Falcon, KDAC, Merx and Genesis were tried with it in a mega-trial before Mr Justice Butcher between October 2024 and February 2025, involving thirteen legal teams. KDAC settled during trial.

In a 230-page judgment of 11 June 2025 ([2025] EWHC 1430 (Comm)) Butcher J held that the aircraft were lost on 10 March 2022 through the Russian state’s restraint and detention, that the war-risks, not all-risks, sections respond, and that the lessors recover subject to policy limits and credit for substantial pre-trial settlements with Russian airlines’ insurers. AerCap’s recovery was put at just over $1B before interest. Butcher J refused the insurers permission to appeal, but in March 2026 the Court of Appeal granted Chubb, Fidelis and Lloyd’s syndicates limited permission, with a hearing of up to five days expected in late 2026 or 2027. A separate strand of London litigation over the Russian operators’ own reinsurance policies has been listed for trial from October 2026.

TIMELINE

MAR 31, 2026PROCEDURAL

Court of Appeal holds oral permission-to-appeal hearing and grants permission on all grounds

A one-day oral hearing took place on 31 March 2026, after which the Court of Appeal granted the War Risks Insurers permission to appeal on all grounds and ordered a five-day substantive appeal hearing, date to be confirmed.

Russian aircraft policy claims: update on permission to appeal applications War Risk Insurers Win Bid to Appeal UK Ruling on Jets Lost in Russia
MAR 10, 2026PROCEDURAL

Court of Appeal refuses permission on the papers for some grounds, orders oral hearing on others

The Court of Appeal refused permission to appeal on the papers for certain grounds, finding no real prospect of success, but directed that Applicants be heard orally on all proposed grounds of appeal without requiring submissions from Respondents.

Russian Aircraft Policy Claims: Update On Permission To Appeal Applications
MAR 2026APPEAL

Court of Appeal grants limited permission

Chubb, Fidelis and Lloyd’s syndicates obtained permission on limited grounds. A hearing of up to five days will be listed, expected late 2026 or in 2027.

Insurance Journal appeal report
OCT 9, 2025APPEAL

War-risks insurers go to the Court of Appeal

After Butcher J refused permission, Fidelis, Chubb and Lloyd’s Insurance Company applied to the Court of Appeal on behalf of the remaining war-risks insurers.
JUN 11, 2025JUDGMENT

Lessors win: war-risks cover responds

Butcher J held the aircraft were lost on 10 March 2022 by the Russian government’s restraint or detention, engaging war-risks rather than all-risks cover. AerCap recovered just over $1B before interest.

[2025] EWHC 1430 (Comm), approved judgment Insurance Journal appeal report
OCT 2, 2024HEARING

Mega-trial opens before Mr Justice Butcher

Six lessor claims were tried together over about 50 hearing days from 2 October 2024 to February 2025. KDAC settled during trial.

[2025] EWHC 1430 (Comm), approved judgment
JUN 2022FILING

AerCap sues its insurers

AerCap issued the lead Commercial Court claim under its contingent and possessed policies, initially about $3.5B under all-risks cover, with DAE, Falcon, KDAC, Merx and Genesis bringing parallel claims that were case-managed together.
MAR 10, 2022OTHER

Russia bans export of leased aircraft

Government Resolution No. 311 barred re-export of foreign-leased aircraft after sanctions forced lease terminations, stranding hundreds of jets with Russian airlines.

Penningtons Manches Cooper case note