Denmark’s tax agency, SKAT, sued Sanjay Shah, Solo Capital, and dozens of others in London, alleging it was deceived into paying about $1.8B in dividend tax refunds. The Commercial Court dismissed every contested claim in October 2025, and SKAT is appealing. The Court of Appeal is due to hear the appeal from March 9 to 16, 2027, according to Danish press reports.
Latest development Aug 13, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Danish news agency Ritzau reported that the Court of Appeal in London will hear SKAT’s appeal from March 9 to 16, 2027. SKAT had expected a hearing in fall 2026.
Why it matters
The appeal will test whether a tax authority with weak controls can recover refunds paid on invalid claims under English fraud law. The outcome matters to tax authorities that pay refunds on claims later shown to be invalid, and to defendants facing about $1.8B in claims.
Background
Between August 2012 and July 2015, Denmark’s tax authority, known as SKAT, paid 4,170 claims for refunds of tax withheld on Danish dividends, totaling just under 12.1 billion Danish kroner (about $1.8B). The claims came out of cum-ex share trading, much of it organized around Solo Capital Partners LLP, the London firm founded by Sanjay Shah, who was based in Dubai. From 2018, SKAT sued Shah, Solo Capital, and others in London, in the onshore Dubai courts, and in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Courts, alleging that it had been deceived into paying. The English claims, five in all and later consolidated in the High Court of Justice of England and Wales (Commercial Court), named 106 defendants.
The Dubai courts ruled for SKAT. In May 2023, the Dubai Court of Cassation upheld a judgment ordering Shah to pay about 4.6 billion dirhams (about $1.25B) plus interest. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) extradited Shah to Denmark on December 6, 2023. In a separate criminal case, a district court in Glostrup convicted him in December 2024 and sentenced him to 12 years in prison. His appeal is due to open before the Eastern High Court on November 10, 2026.
In London, the UK Supreme Court held in November 2023 that the revenue rule did not bar SKAT’s claims. After a trial in the Commercial Court that ran from April 2024 to April 2025, Justice Andrew Baker dismissed every contested claim on October 2, 2025. He found all the refund claims invalid under Danish law and found some defendants, including Shah, dishonest in various ways. But he held that SKAT had not been misled into paying, because its controls were almost non-existent. SKAT obtained a money judgment in default against Syntax GIS Ltd for a principal sum of about 2.45 billion kroner.
The judge refused SKAT permission to appeal and gave his reasons on November 14, 2025. SKAT decided in February 2026 to appeal to the Court of Appeal of England and Wales. In August 2026, Danish news agency Ritzau reported that the court will hear the appeal from March 9 to 16, 2027. Separately, in reasons issued on May 15, 2026, Justice Mark Pelling of the DIFC Courts dismissed a jurisdiction challenge by Emerald Industries, a Delaware company. SKAT alleges in its DIFC tracing claim that Emerald bought Arizona properties with refund proceeds routed through Dubai companies linked to Shah.
Timeline 14 events
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Scheduled hearingCourt of Appeal hears SKAT’s appeal
The Court of Appeal is scheduled to hear SKAT’s appeal against the dismissal of its claims from March 9 to 16, 2027.
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OrderCourt of Appeal hearing set for March 2027, Danish press reports
Ritzau reported that the Court of Appeal will hear SKAT’s appeal from March 9 to 16, 2027. SKAT had expected a hearing in fall 2026.
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JudgmentDIFC court rejects Emerald’s challenge to SKAT’s tracing claim
Justice Mark Pelling dismissed Emerald Industries LLC’s jurisdiction challenge, letting SKAT pursue its claim to Arizona properties it alleges were bought with refund proceeds routed through Dubai.
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AppealSKAT decides to take its case to the Court of Appeal
After reviewing the judgment, the Danish tax agency decided to appeal the dismissal of its claims, Ritzau reported.
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AppealJudge gives reasons for refusing SKAT permission to appeal
Justice Andrew Baker found no real prospect of success on SKAT’s grounds and set a deadline of December 12, 2025, for any appellant’s notice to the Court of Appeal.
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JudgmentCommercial Court dismisses all of SKAT’s contested claims
After a trial of 138 days, Justice Andrew Baker held that SKAT had not been misled into paying the refund claims. He entered a money judgment in default against Syntax GIS Ltd for about 2.45 billion kroner.
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OrderCommercial Court orders SKAT to pay defendants’ costs
After its trial loss, SKAT faced an adverse costs order covering the defense costs of Shah and the other defendants. Reports put the sum at about £400M.
£400M penalty hangs over Denmark after losing major UK tax fraud case
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AppealShah appeals his Danish criminal conviction
Shah said he would appeal the 12-year prison sentence and asset forfeiture order, arguing he did not receive a fair trial.
Sanjay ShahBritish businessman found guilty in $1.35 billion tax scam case in Denmark
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JudgmentDanish court convicts and jails Sanjay Shah for 12 years
The court found Shah guilty of orchestrating the underlying dividend tax fraud scheme. It also ordered forfeiture of assets valued at about $1B.
British Hedge Fund Founder Sanjay Shah Jailed Over Cum-Ex Scam in DenmarkCumEx-Files
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OtherUAE extradites Sanjay Shah to Denmark
UAE authorities extradited Shah to Denmark after a ruling by the Dubai Court of Cassation and a decision of the UAE justice minister.
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JudgmentUK Supreme Court lets SKAT’s claims proceed to trial
The Supreme Court unanimously held that the revenue rule did not bar SKAT’s claims in the English courts.
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JudgmentDubai Court of Cassation upholds judgment for SKAT against Shah
Dubai’s highest court rejected Shah’s appeal and upheld an order to pay SKAT about 4.6 billion dirhams (about $1.25B), plus 5% interest from August 2018.
IELR: Danish Tax Authority Wins in Dubai Court of CassationMoneylife (IANS): Dubai court orders Sanjay Shah to pay $1.25bn
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AppealCourt of Appeal rules on interlocutory appeal
The Court of Appeal of England and Wales issued a ruling in an interlocutory dispute within the consolidated SKAT proceedings, reported as [2022] EWCA Civ 234.
Skatteforvaltningen v Solo Capital Partners Llp [2022] EWCA Civ 234
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FilingSKAT sues Shah, Solo Capital, and others in London
SKAT began the first of five English claims, later consolidated, alleging it was deceived into paying invalid dividend tax refund claims. The claims named 106 defendants in all.
Skatteforvaltningen v Barac & Ors [2020] EWHC 377 (Comm)[2025] EWHC 2364 (Comm)
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeWill the Court of Appeal of England and Wales allow SKAT’s appeal against the October 2, 2025, dismissal of its claims by December 31, 2027?
- Court of Appeal dismisses SKAT’s appeal46%
- SKAT’s appeal succeeds at least in part27%
- Still pending on December 31, 202723%
- SKAT settles or drops appeal4%
- Resolves by
- Dec 31, 2027in 14 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The Court of Appeal is more likely than not to dismiss SKAT’s appeal, at 46%, with judgment expected in 2027 after the March 9 to 16 hearing. The strongest reason is that the decisive finding, that SKAT was not misled, rests on facts found after a 138-day trial. Appellate courts rarely disturb such findings.
How it resolves. Resolves on public records such as the Court of Appeal’s judgment, BAILII or National Archives reports, or reliable press. “SKAT’s appeal succeeds” if the Court of Appeal allows the appeal on any ground that sets aside or remits the dismissal of SKAT’s claims against at least one defendant. “Court of Appeal dismisses appeal” if it dismisses the appeal on the merits, including where SKAT succeeds only on costs. “SKAT settles or drops appeal” if SKAT withdraws the appeal or settles with the main defendants before judgment. “Still pending” if no such event has occurred by December 31, 2027.
Reasoning
Starting point. Final civil appeals heard by the Court of Appeal of England and Wales after a long fact-heavy commercial trial: Roughly 30% to 40% of Court of Appeal civil appeals heard on the merits are allowed in whole or part. The rate is lower where appellants challenge findings of fact made after a long trial.
About a third of English civil appeals heard on the merits succeed, and fewer do when they attack trial findings of fact. The judge’s core holding was that SKAT was not induced to pay because its controls were almost non-existent, and he refused permission for lack of a real prospect of success. The listing of a full hearing suggests the Court of Appeal saw an arguable point, likely on the legal test for being misled, which lifts SKAT’s chances somewhat. The judge’s findings that the refund claims were invalid and that Shah acted dishonestly give SKAT a footing if the inducement test is reframed, and a remittal would count as success. Settlement is unlikely because Shah’s side holds a reported costs order of about £400 million and SKAT faces public pressure to keep pursuing recovery. Judgment in a case this size is usually reserved, so a ruling may slip past December 31, 2027, giving still pending a meaningful share. The leading alternative is a partial win for SKAT on the inducement test, with the claims sent back for further findings.
Inducement finding rests on facts from a 138-day trial · Trial judge refused permission, finding no real prospect · Full hearing listed suggests an arguable legal point on reliance · Reserved judgment could fall after December 31, 2027 · Costs exposure and sunk effort deter settlement
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 18, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made