Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook claims in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that President Trump’s August 2025 attempt to fire her was unlawful. The U.S. Supreme Court upheld the for-cause protection for Fed governors in June 2026, and her merits claims are pending before the district court. A White House committee of inquiry set a closed-door hearing on her removal for November 5, 2026, which her counsel asked to postpone.
Latest development Nov 5, 2026
On November 5, 2026, a White House committee of inquiry was scheduled to hold a closed-door hearing on the mortgage fraud allegations against Cook. Cook is directed to answer questions at the hearing, and a transcript is to be published afterward. The record does not show whether the hearing went ahead or whether the White House granted her counsel’s request for a later date.
Why it matters
The Supreme Court’s ruling carves Fed governors out of Trump v. Slaughter, which overruled Humphrey’s Executor the same day. The remaining proceedings will test what counts as cause, including conduct before taking office, and what process a president must give before removing a central banker.
Background
On August 15, 2025, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte sent the Department of Justice (DOJ) a criminal referral accusing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud. He alleged that on 2021 mortgage applications, before she joined the Federal Reserve Board, Cook misrepresented two properties in Michigan and Georgia as primary residences. On August 25, 2025, President Trump cited the referral and announced that he was firing Cook for cause. Cook denies any wrongdoing and has never been charged.
On August 28, 2025, Cook sued in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, represented by Abbe Lowell. She argues that the firing violated the Federal Reserve Act’s “for cause” standard, which she says covers only conduct in office. She also claims that her removal without notice or a hearing violated her Fifth Amendment due process rights. On September 9, 2025, Judge Jia M. Cobb granted a preliminary injunction, finding Cook likely to succeed on both her statutory and constitutional claims. On September 15, 2025, a divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (the D.C. Circuit) denied the government’s request for a stay pending appeal.
On October 1, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court deferred ruling on the government’s stay application and set the case for oral argument, which it heard on January 21, 2026. On June 29, 2026, it ruled 5 to 4 that the for-cause removal protection for Fed governors is constitutional. It held that the President must give a governor notice and a meaningful opportunity to respond before a removal can take effect. The Court denied the stay and left the injunction in place, so Cook remained in office throughout the litigation. On July 20, 2026, the D.C. Circuit’s mandate issued, and the case returned to Judge Cobb, where Cook’s original claims remain pending on the merits.
On August 5, 2026, presidential aide Dan Scavino wrote that Trump was considering Cook’s removal over the same allegations, framing the letter as the notice the Supreme Court required. Cook’s lawyers responded by the August 26, 2026, deadline with a five-page letter denying wrongdoing and arguing that the allegations remain legally insufficient. On October 7, 2026, Trump created a three-member White House committee of inquiry to report whether cause exists for her removal. On October 13, 2026, Lowell told the White House that Cook cannot attend the committee’s closed-door hearing on November 5, 2026, at which she is directed to answer questions. He cited scheduling conflicts, alleged that the committee is biased, and asked for a later date.
Timeline 14 events
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OrderCommittee of inquiry schedules closed-door hearing on Cook allegations
The committee of inquiry set a closed-door hearing at the White House for November 5, 2026, at which Lisa Cook is directed to answer questions about mortgage fraud allegations. A transcript of the hearing is to be published afterward.
Trump establishes committee to investigate Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook in latest effort to fire herTrump orders Nov. 5 Cook hearing in renewed bid to oust Fed governorTrump establishes 'committee of inquiry' for Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa CookTrump creates committee to probe allegations of mortgage fraud by Fed Governor Lisa CookPresident Trump Orders Lisa Cook To Face White House Hearing Over Mortgage Allegations
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OrderCook’s counsel asks White House to delay November 5 hearing
Abbe Lowell told the White House that Cook cannot attend the committee’s November 5 hearing because of scheduling conflicts. He alleged that the panel is biased and proposed a later date, reportedly after the December FOMC meeting.
Lawyer for Fed's Lisa Cook asked White House to delay Nov. 5 hearing, alleging biasLisa Cook's lawyers call Trump investigation committee 'demonstrably biased'Lisa Cook's lawyer challenges impartiality of Trump panel reviewing Fed mortgage allegations
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OrderTrump creates White House committee to probe Cook mortgage claims
President Trump’s memorandum named Kevin Hassett, Keith Sonderling, and Andrea Lucas to investigate allegations that Cook made false statements on mortgage applications. The committee will report whether cause exists for her removal under the Supreme Court’s Trump v. Cook decision.
Establishment of a Committee of Inquiry to Investigate Allegations of False Statements by Lisa DeNell CookTrump forms committee to investigate Fed Gov. Lisa CookTrump Forms Committee to Probe Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook
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FilingCook submits written response denying wrongdoing
Abbe Lowell submitted a five-page letter on Cook’s behalf denying mortgage fraud and arguing the allegations do not provide a legally valid basis for removal.
Fed's Lisa Cook turns mortgage allegations back on Trump and his Cabinet
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OtherWhite House sends renewed removal notice
Presidential aide Dan Scavino wrote that Trump was considering Cook’s removal over the same mortgage fraud allegations. The letter was framed as satisfying the Supreme Court’s notice requirement and set an August 26 deadline to respond.
White House revives unprecedented effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook
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OrderD.C. Circuit issues mandate and case returns to Judge Cobb
The mandate followed the Supreme Court’s ruling and sent the merits case back to the district court for further proceedings.
Trump v. Cook and For-Cause Removal of Federal Reserve Governors
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JudgmentSupreme Court upholds Fed for-cause protection and denies stay
Writing for a 5 to 4 majority, Chief Justice Roberts held that the protection requires notice and an opportunity to respond before removal. The Court denied the government’s stay application, keeping Cook in office.
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HearingSupreme Court hears oral argument
Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued for Trump and Paul D. Clement argued for Cook before the full Supreme Court.
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OrderSupreme Court defers stay ruling and sets oral argument
The Supreme Court declined to rule immediately on the government’s stay application and scheduled oral argument for January 2026, leaving Cook in office in the meantime.
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AppealD.C. Circuit denies emergency stay
A divided D.C. Circuit panel, with Judges Garcia and Childs concurring and Judge Katsas dissenting, denied the Trump administration’s request to stay the injunction pending appeal.
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JudgmentJudge Cobb grants preliminary injunction
U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb ruled Cook was likely to succeed on her statutory and due process claims and ordered that she remain in her Fed post while litigation proceeds.
Federal judge blocks Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, for now
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FilingCook files suit challenging her removal
Represented by Abbe Lowell, Cook sued in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. She argued that the firing violated the Federal Reserve Act’s for-cause provision and her due process rights.
Fed governor, CDC director turn to top Washington lawyer in Trump fights
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OtherTrump announces he is firing Cook
Trump posted a letter on social media stating he had determined there was sufficient cause to remove Cook from the Federal Reserve Board.
Fed Governor Cook's attorney says he will file suit over Trump's attempt to fire her
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FilingPulte refers mortgage fraud allegations to DOJ
Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte accused Cook of mortgage fraud in a criminal referral letter. The allegations concerned 2021 loan applications made before her Senate confirmation to the Fed board.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeBy June 30, 2027, will the district court rule for Lisa Cook or for President Trump on the lawfulness of her removal, original or renewed?
- Cook wins in district court47%
- Still pending on June 30, 202727%
- Court lets Trump remove Cook18%
- Case dismissed without merits ruling8%
- Resolves by
- Jun 30, 2027in 8 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
Cook is the most likely to win the next district court ruling on her removal, at 47%, by June 30, 2027. The Supreme Court held in June 2026 that removal requires prior notice and a chance to respond, and the August 2025 firing gave neither. The renewed White House process adds uncertainty and could delay a ruling.
How it resolves. Resolves on the first qualifying order of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia in Cook v. Trump, No. 1:25-cv-02903, or a related case over a renewed removal, entered by June 30, 2027. Qualifying orders are summary judgment, final judgment, or an order granting or denying preliminary relief against a renewed removal. “Cook wins” if the order holds a removal unlawful or blocks it. “Trump may remove Cook” if the order upholds a removal or denies relief so that it takes effect. “Dismissed” if the case is dismissed or withdrawn without such a ruling. Otherwise “Still pending.” Public dockets and court opinions control.
Reasoning
Starting point. Federal district court merits rulings after a plaintiff won a preliminary injunction later left intact by the Supreme Court: Plaintiffs who win preliminary injunctions on likelihood-of-success findings prevail in roughly two-thirds of cases reaching a final ruling
Plaintiffs who win preliminary injunctions on likelihood-of-success findings prevail in roughly two-thirds of cases that reach a final ruling. The Supreme Court held that a Fed governor is entitled to notice and a meaningful opportunity to respond before removal, and the August 2025 firing offered neither, which strongly favors Cook on the original claim. The main uncertainty is the renewed process, with the committee hearing set for November 5, 2026, and a new removal order likely to trigger fresh motions and briefing. The government’s strongest path is to argue that the new process cures the defect and that pre-office conduct can supply cause, a question the courts have not resolved. Delay is the leading alternative, because emergency litigation over a renewed removal could stretch past June 2027 without a qualifying order. Dismissal could follow if the government drops the removal effort or the court finds the original claims moot. Nothing in the record since the October 14, 2026, forecast moves any outcome by five points, so the numbers are unchanged.
Supreme Court requires notice and hearing before removal · Whether Trump issues a renewed removal after the committee · Open question whether pre-office conduct can be cause · Briefing time for new claims on a renewed removal · Possible mootness of the original August 2025 removal
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 19, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made