Federal prosecutors in Manhattan accuse Nicolás Maduro of narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons offenses, and charge his wife, Cilia Flores, on related counts. On October 15, 2026, both pleaded not guilty to a torture conspiracy charge added by a superseding indictment, and both have moved to dismiss on immunity grounds. Argument on those motions is set for November 17, 2026, and trial for June 1, 2027.
Latest development Oct 15, 2026
On October 15, 2026, Maduro and Flores were arraigned on the superseding indictment before Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein in Manhattan federal court. Both pleaded not guilty to the added charge of conspiracy to commit torture. Argument on the defense motions to dismiss remains set for November 17, 2026, and trial for June 1, 2027.
Why it matters
The court will decide whether head-of-state and conduct-based immunity bar the U.S. prosecution of a foreign leader seized by U.S. forces abroad. The rulings bear on the reach of U.S. criminal jurisdiction over foreign officials and on the act of state doctrine.
Background
Nicolás Maduro Moros was first indicted in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York in March 2020 on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and related weapons charges. The indictment also named more than a dozen current and former Venezuelan officials as part of the long-running Cartel de los Soles investigation. The United States offered a large reward for information leading to his arrest. It had no realistic way to take him into custody while he remained in power in Caracas.
On January 3, 2026, U.S. forces raided Maduro’s residence in Caracas as part of a broader military operation. They captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flew them to New York. Two days later, both were arraigned before Senior U.S. District Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein on a superseding indictment and pleaded not guilty. Maduro told the court he considered himself a prisoner of war who had been kidnapped. Both defendants remain detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn pending trial.
The case then proceeded on a Fourth Superseding Indictment, which charged Maduro with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses, and charged Flores on related counts. Both have privately retained counsel: Barry Pollack of Harris St. Laurent & Wechsler for Maduro and Mark Donnelly of Parker Sánchez & Donnelly for Flores. In February 2026, Maduro’s counsel asked the court to dismiss the indictment, arguing that the United States had blocked Venezuelan funds needed to pay his legal costs. On April 25, 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department resolved that dispute by modifying sanctions licenses. The changes let the Venezuelan government pay both defendants’ legal fees, subject to conditions on the source of funds.
In September 2026, Maduro moved to dismiss the entire indictment on head-of-state and conduct-based sovereign immunity grounds, and the narco-terrorism count for lack of statutory jurisdiction. Flores filed a parallel immunity motion as the spouse of a sitting head of state and separately moved for release to home confinement, citing a worsening heart condition. On October 2, 2026, prosecutors opposed the dismissal motions, arguing that neither defendant has immunity because the United States withdrew recognition of Maduro in 2019. Both defendants pleaded not guilty on October 15, 2026, to a torture conspiracy charge added by a superseding indictment unsealed on October 8. Defense replies were due October 16, 2026, oral argument on the dismissal motions is set for November 17, 2026, and trial is set for June 1, 2027.
Timeline 16 events
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Scheduled orderTrial set to begin for Maduro and Flores
The court scheduled trial on the narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges.
Ex-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and wife seek to end drug charges case on immunity grounds
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Scheduled hearingCourt to hear argument on motions to dismiss indictment
Judge Hellerstein set argument on the defense motions to dismiss the indictment on sovereign immunity and jurisdictional grounds.
Ex-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and wife seek to end drug charges case on immunity grounds
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OrderMaduro and Flores plead not guilty to torture charge
Maduro and Flores appeared before Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein in Manhattan federal court and pleaded not guilty to the conspiracy to commit torture count added by the superseding indictment.
Venezuela's Maduro pleads not guilty to US conspiracy to torture chargesVenezuela's Nicolas Maduro pleads not guilty to torture - ABC News
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FilingProsecutors unseal superseding indictment adding torture charge
The Justice Department unsealed a superseding indictment charging Maduro and Flores with conspiracy to commit torture, in addition to the pending narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges. Conviction on all counts would carry a 50-year mandatory minimum.
Nicolás Maduro Moros and Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro Charged with TortureNicolás Maduro Moros And Cilia Adela Flores De Maduro Charged With TortureNicolás Maduro Moros and Cilia Adela Flores De Maduro Charged With Torture
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OrderProsecutor Jason Richman withdraws from case
AUSA Jason A. Richman asked Judge Hellerstein to terminate his appearance after leaving the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York on September 25, 2026.
Top Maduro Prosecutor Is Leaving SDNY, US Attorney Tells CourtNicolás Maduro and Wife Case Takes Unexpected Turn As Longtime Prosecutor Leaves Months Ahead of Trial
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FilingProsecutors oppose Maduro and Flores dismissal motions
The brief answered three defense motions and argued that neither defendant has head-of-state or official-act immunity because the United States withdrew recognition of Maduro in 2019. Defense replies are due October 16, 2026.
Venezuela: US Prosecutors Say Maduro and Cilia Flores Have No Immunity, Seek TrialMaduro not immune to prosecution in narco-terror case, U.S. saysNew York Court rejects Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores' claims of immunity ahead of drug trafficking trial
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OrderProsecutors face deadline to respond to immunity motion
Prosecutors were reported to have until October 2, 2026, to respond to Maduro’s sovereign immunity motion to dismiss the charges.
Venezuela's Maduro asserts immunity in US court, urges dismissal of chargesVenezuela's Maduro asserts immunity, urges US judge to dismiss charges
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FilingFlores moves for release citing heart condition
Flores asked to be released from the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn to home confinement in New York. She cited a worsening cardiac condition and significant weight loss in custody.
Ex-Venezuelan First Lady Cilia Flores Seeks Release From Jail, Citing Heart AilmentCilia Flores Seeks Bail From Brooklyn Jail Over Heart Fears
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FilingDefense moves to dismiss indictment on sovereign immunity grounds
Maduro sought dismissal on head-of-state and conduct-based immunity grounds and moved to dismiss the narco-terrorism count for lack of statutory jurisdiction. Flores filed a parallel immunity motion as the spouse of a sitting head of state.
Ousted Venezuelan president Maduro and wife move to dismiss drug trafficking indictment on sovereign immunity groundsEx-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and wife seek to end drug charges case on immunity grounds
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OrderTreasury resolves dispute over Venezuelan funds for Maduro’s defense
The Treasury modified sanctions licenses to let the Venezuelan government pay Maduro’s and Flores’s legal fees, subject to conditions on the source of funds. Prosecutors and defense counsel presented the resolution jointly to Judge Hellerstein.
US allows Venezuelan government to pay for Maduro's legal feesVenezuelan government can fund Maduros' legal feesUS agrees Venezuelan government can pay Maduro's legal fees, ending weekslong standoffUS to allow Venezuelan government to cover Maduro's lawyer fees
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FilingMaduro asks court to dismiss indictment over blocked funds
Maduro’s counsel asked the court to dismiss the indictment, arguing the United States had blocked Venezuelan funds needed to pay his legal costs.
Deposed Venezuelan President Maduro asks judge to toss out indictmentOusted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro asks judge to toss indictmentMaduro Seeks to Toss US Charges Over Blocked Payments to Lawyer
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OrderFlores retains Houston attorney Mark Donnelly
Donnelly, of Parker Sánchez & Donnelly, moved to appear pro hac vice as Flores’s counsel.
Houston lawyer Mark Donnelly files to rep Cilia Flores in Maduro case
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OrderBarry Pollack appears as Maduro’s lead counsel
Pollack, of Harris St. Laurent & Wechsler, previously represented Julian Assange.
Maduro Taps Lawdragon Honoree Barry Pollack for New York Legal Battle
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HearingMaduro and Flores are arraigned and plead not guilty
Both pleaded not guilty in Manhattan federal court to narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons counts. Maduro described himself as a kidnapped prisoner of war.
Maduro says he was 'kidnapped' and is 'prisoner of war' in New York court, pleads not guiltyVenezuelan leader Maduro pleads not guilty at federal arraignment
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OtherU.S. forces capture Maduro and Flores in Caracas raid
U.S. armed forces carried out a large-scale strike and raid on Maduro’s residence in Caracas. They captured Maduro and Flores and flew them to the United States.
U.S. Captures Venezuelan Dictator Nicolas Maduro Following Military Operation in CaracasJanuary 3, 2026 — Maduro in US custody
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FilingProsecutors unseal original narco-terrorism indictment
The Department of Justice (DOJ) charged Maduro and more than a dozen current and former Venezuelan officials with narco-terrorism, corruption, and drug trafficking. Maduro remained in Venezuela.
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will the court rule on the defense motions to dismiss the operative superseding indictment on immunity and jurisdictional grounds by April 30, 2027?
- Court denies all dismissal motions72%
- Still pending on April 30, 202719%
- Some counts dismissed, case proceeds6%
- Indictment dismissed on immunity3%
- Resolves by
- Apr 30, 2027in 6 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The court will most likely deny all defense motions to dismiss by April 30, 2027 (72%). Courts typically defer to the executive branch on head-of-state recognition, and prosecutors argue the United States withdrew recognition of Maduro in 2019. A ruling is likely before the June 1, 2027, trial date.
How it resolves. Resolves on the court’s written or oral ruling on the pending defense motions to dismiss (head-of-state immunity, conduct-based immunity, and statutory jurisdiction over the narco-terrorism count), as shown on the docket or in reliable reporting. “Denies all” if every count survives as to both defendants. “Some counts dismissed” if at least one count is dismissed for either defendant but the prosecution continues. “Indictment dismissed” if all counts are dismissed for at least one defendant on immunity or jurisdictional grounds. “Still pending” if no ruling has issued by April 30, 2027.
Reasoning
Starting point. U.S. federal pretrial motions to dismiss indictments of foreign officials on head-of-state or sovereign immunity grounds, where the executive branch does not recognize the defendant as head of state.: Such motions rarely succeed. Courts generally defer to executive recognition decisions, as in the Noriega prosecution, and federal motions to dismiss indictments are granted in well under 10% of cases.
Head-of-state immunity claims by unrecognized leaders have generally failed in U.S. courts, which treat recognition as an executive decision. The Noriega prosecution is the closest comparable case, and immunity was rejected there. Prosecutors rely on the 2019 withdrawal of recognition, which is the strongest point in the briefing. Conduct-based immunity for drug trafficking and torture faces doctrinal hurdles, since such conduct is rarely treated as official acts. The narco-terrorism statutory jurisdiction challenge is narrower and offers the most realistic path to a partial dismissal, which keeps a small mixed outcome. Argument is set for November 17, 2026, and the June 1, 2027, trial date creates pressure to rule well before April 30, 2027. The leading alternative is delay, since the new torture count may draw supplemental briefing and an unusual international case may slow a written opinion. No new record developments since the October 16, 2026, forecast, so the numbers are unchanged.
Executive branch withdrew recognition of Maduro in 2019 · Courts defer to executive on head-of-state recognition · Noriega precedent rejecting immunity for unrecognized leader · June 1, 2027 trial date pushes timely ruling · New torture count may prompt supplemental briefing
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 21, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made