Dow Chemical Canada and Dow Europe sued NOVA Chemicals in Alberta, alleging NOVA ran their jointly owned E3 ethylene plant at Joffre below capacity and took Dow’s ethylene. The courts found NOVA liable, and NOVA paid a June 2025 judgment of C$1.62B (about $1.2B) after the Court of Appeal of Alberta refused a stay. The court is scheduled to hear NOVA’s appeals on November 12, 2026.
Latest development Mar 3, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Dow said NOVA had paid the June 2025 judgment after the Court of Appeal of Alberta refused a stay. The payment came to about C$1.8B (about $1.3B), including costs and post-judgment interest. NOVA’s appeals are scheduled to be heard on November 12, 2026.
Why it matters
The appeal will decide whether Dow keeps damages that Bennett Jones calls the highest commercial award in Canadian history. NOVA now belongs to Borouge Group International, owned by ADNOC’s XRG and OMV, and Dow has sued again over losses after June 2018.
Background
In 1997, NOVA Chemicals Corporation (NOVA) and Union Carbide agreed to build E3, the third ethylene cracker at NOVA’s petrochemical complex at Joffre, Alberta, with NOVA as operator. Dow took over Union Carbide’s half interest when the two companies merged in 2001. In 2006, Dow Chemical Canada ULC and Dow Europe GmbH (together, Dow) sued NOVA. Dow alleged that NOVA ran E3 below full capacity and took part of Dow’s share of the ethylene through an ethane allocation scheme. NOVA counterclaimed.
After a trial in 2015 and 2016, Justice Barbara Romaine of the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta ruled for Dow in June 2018. She found NOVA liable for breach of contract and conversion and dismissed its counterclaim. A judgment for C$1.43B (about $1.08B) covered losses through 2012, and NOVA paid it in October 2019. In September 2020, the Court of Appeal of Alberta upheld the liability findings. It held that Dow could recover only direct damages, not lost polyethylene profits, and sent the calculation back to the trial court. In August 2024, the Court of Appeal decided a procedural appeal arising from the recalculation proceedings (2024 ABCA 278).
On April 7, 2025, the Court of King’s Bench of Alberta ruled again for Dow on the remanded issues and the losses from 2013 to June 2018. On June 10, 2025, it signed a judgment for a further C$1.62B (about $1.2B). Bennett Jones LLP, Dow’s lead counsel, puts the total award at C$3.561B. It says the award is believed to be the highest commercial award in Canadian history. On August 11, 2025, the court awarded Dow costs of about $100M. NOVA appealed the 2025 decisions and many earlier procedural rulings.
On February 23, 2026, Justice Jolaine Antonio of the Court of Appeal of Alberta refused to stay enforcement pending the appeals. NOVA then paid about C$1.8B (about $1.3B), including costs and post-judgment interest. On March 31, 2026, Borouge Group International, owned equally by ADNOC’s investment arm XRG and OMV, completed its purchase of NOVA from a Mubadala Investment Company subsidiary. NOVA’s appeals are scheduled to be heard together on November 12, 2026. Dow has also sued NOVA over lost ethylene volumes after June 2018.
Timeline 14 events
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Scheduled hearingCourt of Appeal of Alberta hears NOVA’s appeals of the 2025 decisions
NOVA’s appeals of the 2025 trial decisions and numerous earlier procedural rulings are scheduled to be heard together.
Dow Chemical Canada ULC v NOVA Chemicals Corporation, 2026 ABCA 50, para. 4
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OtherBorouge Group International completes its purchase of NOVA
Borouge Group International, owned equally by ADNOC’s investment arm XRG and OMV, acquired 100% of NOVA Chemicals Corporation. A Mubadala subsidiary agreed to sell NOVA in March 2025.
OMV and XRG Complete Transactions to Create Borouge InternationalOMV Group Report January to March 2026ADNOC and OMV to Create $60+ Billion Global Polyolefins Champion (March 4, 2025)
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EnforcementDow confirms NOVA has paid about C$1.8B
The payment covered the C$1.62B judgment, C$140M in costs, and post-judgment interest, about $1.3B in total.
Dow: Dow receives CAD $1.62 billion payment from NOVA following Alberta Court of Appeal decisionDow Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026
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OrderCourt of Appeal refuses NOVA a stay of enforcement pending appeal
Justice Jolaine Antonio found that NOVA had not shown irreparable harm or that the balance of convenience favored a stay (2026 ABCA 50).
Dow Chemical Canada ULC v NOVA Chemicals Corporation, 2026 ABCA 50Canadian Lawyer: Dow Chemical Canada ULC v NOVA Chemicals Corporation (case summary)
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JudgmentCourt awards Dow costs of about $100M
Dow said the costs award brought NOVA’s payment obligation under the 2025 judgment to about $1.3B.
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JudgmentCombined judgments against NOVA reach about C$3.56B
Bennett Jones, counsel for Dow, said the June 10, 2025, judgment brought Dow’s total damages in the litigation to about C$3.561B.
Bennett Jones Acts for Dow Chemical in Successful $3.56 Billion Contract Claim
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JudgmentCourt signs judgment for a further C$1.62B
The judgment, about $1.2B, covers Dow’s losses through June 2018 and includes interest to April 7, 2025. Dow said it was subject to appeal.
Dow: Canadian court orders NOVA Chemicals to pay Dow an additional CAD$1.6 billion judgment (June 11, 2025)Dow Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026
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JudgmentAlberta trial court rules again for Dow on recalculated damages
The Court of King’s Bench of Alberta decided the remanded issues and the losses from 2013 to June 2018. Bennett Jones, Dow’s counsel, puts the total award at C$3.561B.
Bennett Jones: Bennett Jones Acts for Dow Chemical in Successful $3.56 Billion Contract Claim
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AppealCourt of Appeal of Alberta rules in NOVA Chemicals v. Dow Chemical Canada
The Court of Appeal of Alberta issued a decision, reported as 2024 ABCA 278, in a procedural appeal arising from the ongoing damages recalculation proceedings.
Dow Chemical Canada ULC v NOVA Chemicals Corporation, 2025 ABKB 217 - History
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AppealCourt of Appeal of Alberta upholds liability, orders damages recalculated
The appellate court affirmed NOVA’s liability following an 82-day trial but sent the damages calculation back for later years.
Alberta Court of Appeal Upholds $1-billion Dow Judgment Against Nova Chemicals
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AppealCourt of Appeal of Alberta upholds liability and orders damages recalculated
The court held that Dow could recover only direct damages, not lost polyethylene profits, and sent the calculation back to the trial court (2020 ABCA 320).
Global News: Alberta Court orders recalculation of $1.4B in damages, supports Dow in Nova lawsuitCanadian Lawyer: Alberta Court of Appeal upholds $1-billion Dow judgment against Nova Chemicals
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JudgmentCourt finds NOVA liable for converting Dow’s ethylene
Justice Barbara Romaine of the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta ruled that NOVA had converted Dow’s ethylene and breached the parties’ joint venture agreement.
Dow Canada Awarded $1.3 Billion Judgment Against NOVA Chemicals
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JudgmentAlberta trial court finds NOVA liable to Dow
Justice Barbara Romaine found NOVA liable for breach of contract and conversion and dismissed its counterclaim. NOVA paid the resulting C$1.43B (about $1.08B) judgment, covering losses through 2012, in October 2019.
Lexpert: Dow Chemical Canada ULC v. NOVA Chemicals CorporationDow: Dow receives CAD $1.62 billion payment from NOVA (March 3, 2026)
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FilingDow sues NOVA over the E3 ethylene plant at Joffre
Dow alleged that NOVA, as operator, ran E3 below full capacity and took part of Dow’s share of the ethylene through an ethane allocation scheme.
Lexpert: Dow Chemical Canada ULC v. NOVA Chemicals CorporationFTI Consulting: Record-breaking award caps decades of litigation for Dow Chemical
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will the Court of Appeal of Alberta decide NOVA’s appeals of the 2025 damages and costs judgments by December 31, 2027?
- Court dismisses NOVA’s appeals47%
- Still pending on December 31, 202722%
- NOVA’s appeals allowed in part20%
- Court sets aside Dow’s 2025 judgment6%
- Dow and NOVA settle before decision5%
- Resolves by
- Dec 31, 2027in 14 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The most likely outcome, at 47%, is that the Court of Appeal of Alberta dismisses NOVA’s appeals by December 31, 2027. Liability was affirmed in 2020, and the remaining issues concern a trial judge’s damages findings, which appellate courts review with deference.
How it resolves. Resolves on the first public disposition by December 31, 2027, of NOVA’s appeals heard together (including 2501-0128AC and 2501-0239AC). “Appeals dismissed” means the 2025 judgments stand without any change in the damages or costs amounts. “Allowed in part” means the court reduces damages, interest, or costs by any amount but leaves the June 10, 2025, judgment substantially in place. “Judgment set aside” means the court sets aside the June 10, 2025, damages judgment in whole or in its main part, or orders a new damages assessment covering most of it. “Settlement” means a publicly reported settlement or discontinuance of the appeals before any decision. “Still pending” means none of these has occurred by December 31, 2027.
Reasoning
Starting point. Civil appeals from trial-level damages assessments in Canadian provincial appellate courts, after liability was already affirmed on an earlier appeal: Canadian provincial appellate courts allow roughly 20% to 30% of civil appeals in whole or part. Full reversal of a damages quantum found by a trial judge is rarer, perhaps 10% or less, given the deference owed to findings of fact and discretionary assessments.
The base rate for civil appeals succeeding in Canadian appellate courts is roughly 20% to 30%, and full reversals of trial damages assessments are rarer. Here liability is final after 2020 ABCA 320, so NOVA can attack only the remanded quantum, interest, costs, and procedural rulings. Many grounds are under appeal, so a partial variation of interest, costs, or one damages component is the main alternative, at 20%. A wholesale set-aside is a long shot at 6%. The February 2026 stay refusal turned on irreparable harm and balance of convenience, not the merits, so it adds little. NOVA has already paid, which removes pressure on Dow to compromise. That keeps settlement low, although new owner Borouge and the separate post-2018 lawsuit give some reason for a global deal. Timing is the largest uncertainty. The joint hearing is set for November 12, 2026, and complex multi-ground appeals in Alberta can take six to twelve months or more after argument. An adjournment or long reserve is possible, so “still pending” carries 22%.
Liability already affirmed on appeal in 2020 · Appellate deference to trial findings on damages quantum · Many grounds raise chance of partial variation · Length of reserve after November 12, 2026 hearing · Judgment paid, reducing Dow’s incentive to settle
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 18, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made