Mercuria Energy Trading alleges in the High Court in London that the Baltic Exchange breached its duties by publishing its TD3C tanker benchmark through the Hormuz crisis. Mercuria has dropped its damages claim and seeks declarations that the assessments published since early March 2026 are invalid. An expedited trial opened on October 26, 2026, with judgment expected in early 2027.
Latest development Oct 28, 2026
On October 28, 2026, a Baltic Exchange freight assessor testified at trial that “a certain amount of cajoling and bullying” was needed to get brokers to submit tanker rate data. The assessor linked this to the disruption of shipping after the Iran war began. The 15-day expedited trial of Mercuria’s challenge to the TD3C benchmark continues, and judgment is expected in early 2027.
Why it matters
The court will decide whether a user can hold a benchmark administrator to its duties when the market the benchmark measures is disrupted. A declaration that the TD3C assessments are invalid could unsettle tanker charters and freight derivatives priced against them since March 2026.
Background
The Baltic Exchange, owned by Singapore Exchange (SGX), publishes TD3C, a daily freight benchmark for very large crude carriers (VLCCs). It prices a 270,000-tonne crude cargo from Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia to Ningbo in China, a voyage through the Strait of Hormuz. A panel of shipbrokers supplies the assessments, and tanker charters and freight derivatives worth billions of dollars are priced against them. U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran began on February 28, 2026, and traffic through the strait fell sharply. TD3C rose to as much as $600,000 a day, against a typical $40,000 to $100,000.
In March 2026, the Baltic told its panelists to keep assessing the route from Ras Tanura. On April 30, 2026, Mercuria Energy Trading S.A. sued Baltic Exchange Information Services Limited in the Financial List of the Commercial Court of the High Court of Justice of England and Wales. Mercuria alleges that the Baltic breached its statutory and contractual duties, including under the Benchmarks Regulation, because TD3C no longer reflected the market it is meant to measure. It argued that the Baltic should have suspended TD3C or set it by reference to comparable routes outside the Gulf. It estimated its losses on TD3C-linked freight contracts and derivatives in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
The Baltic denies the claim, arguing that lawful passage remained possible, that its panelists could still assess the route, and that its liability to users is limited to their fees. On May 22, 2026, Justice Christopher Butcher ordered an expedited trial, citing wider market concern about the benchmark, and the Baltic filed its defense on June 16, 2026. On July 23, 2026, Justice Andrew Baker refused to let two Mercuria executives, including global head of marine business Larry Johnson, see the Baltic’s confidential documents. He found that the material would give a market participant a competitive advantage. In October 2026, Mercuria dropped its damages claim and its alternative case based on comparable routes.
Mercuria now seeks declarations that the Baltic breached its obligations and that the TD3C assessments published since early March 2026 are invalid. At the trial, which opened on October 26, 2026, Mercuria relies on recorded comments by panel brokers and Baltic staff doubting that the route could be assessed. It alleges that the Baltic kept TD3C running to avoid losing freight derivatives business to a rival S&P Global Platts assessment, but it does not allege bad faith. The Baltic argues that the claim is without precedent and that invalidating eight months of prices would destabilize shipping markets. Judgment is expected in early 2027.
Timeline 9 events
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HearingBaltic Exchange assessor describes pressuring brokers for rates
A Baltic Exchange freight assessor testified at trial that getting companies to submit tanker rate data after the Iran war began required some cajoling and bullying of brokers.
Baltic Exchange Pressured Brokers for Tanker Rates During Iran War, Court Hears - Bloomberg
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HearingTrial of Mercuria’s challenge to the TD3C benchmark opens in London
Mercuria relied on recorded comments by panel brokers and Baltic staff doubting that the route could be assessed. The Baltic argued that invalidating eight months of prices would destabilize shipping markets.
Reuters via Baird Maritime: Baltic Exchange says Mercuria tanker rate lawsuit threatens marketsMercuria Says Rival Fears Drove Disputed Baltic Tanker RateBloomberg via gCaptain: Hormuz chaos sparks legal fight over global tanker pricingTrial evidence highlights TD3C scepticism — even inside Baltic ExchangeBreakbulk News: Mercuria seeks to invalidate Baltic VLCC rates as London trial threatens freight derivatives
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OrderMercuria drops its damages claim against the Baltic Exchange
Mercuria also dropped its alternative case based on comparable routes and now seeks declarations that the TD3C assessments published since early March 2026 are invalid.
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OrderCourt keeps Baltic’s confidential documents from two Mercuria executives
Justice Andrew Baker refused to admit Larry Johnson and Ojas Joshi to the confidentiality ring, finding that the material would give a market participant a competitive advantage.
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FilingBaltic Exchange files its defense of the TD3C assessments
The Baltic argued that lawful passage through the strait remained possible and that its panelists continued to provide assessments.
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OrderHigh Court orders an expedited trial of Mercuria’s benchmark claim
Justice Christopher Butcher set the trial for October 26, 2026, citing wider market concern about the benchmark. The Baltic argued that its liability to users is limited to their fees.
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FilingMercuria sues the Baltic Exchange in the High Court in London
Mercuria alleged breaches of statutory and contractual duties and estimated its losses on TD3C-linked contracts in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Baltic called the claim without merit.
Mercuria Sues Exchange Over 'Hundreds of Millions' of LossesReuters via Insurance Journal: Trader Mercuria sues Baltic Exchange over Hormuz freight losses, court filing showsHellenic Shipping News: Baltic Exchange responds to claim from Mercuria Energy Trading
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OtherBaltic Exchange keeps assessing TD3C from Ras Tanura
The Baltic told its panelists to continue assessing the route from Ras Tanura even though shipments had nearly stopped.
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OtherU.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt tanker traffic through Hormuz
TD3C rose to as much as $600,000 a day, against a typical $40,000 to $100,000.
Bloomberg via Insurance JournalFind Case Law: [2026] EWHC 1942 (Comm)
Experimental AI forecast
How it is madeHow will the High Court rule on Mercuria’s claim for declarations that the Baltic Exchange’s TD3C assessments since March 2026 are invalid?
- Baltic defeats Mercuria’s claim58%
- Court declares breach, not invalidity14%
- Still pending on July 31, 202712%
- Court declares TD3C prices invalid10%
- Case settles or Mercuria discontinues6%
- Resolves by
- Jul 31, 2027in 9 months
- Record confidence
- Medium
The Baltic Exchange is most likely to defeat Mercuria’s claim, at 58%, with judgment expected in early 2027. Mercuria has dropped damages and its comparable-routes case, does not allege bad faith, and asks for a remedy that would unsettle eight months of priced contracts.
How it resolves. Resolves on the first public High Court judgment or order on Mercuria’s claims, or on a public report of settlement or discontinuance, by July 31, 2027. Outcomes are: (a) the court dismisses Mercuria’s claims for declarations of breach and invalidity. (b) the court declares that the Baltic breached a duty but refuses to declare the TD3C assessments invalid. (c) the court declares some or all TD3C assessments since March 2026 invalid. (d) the parties settle or Mercuria discontinues before judgment. (e) no judgment, settlement, or discontinuance is public by July 31, 2027. Appeals do not change the resolution.
Reasoning
Starting point. Novel English Commercial Court claims for declaratory relief against market infrastructure providers, tried on an expedited timetable: Claimants win roughly 40% to 50% of English Commercial Court trials. Novel claims to invalidate published market prices succeed far less often, likely under 20%.
English courts rarely grant declarations that would retroactively invalidate published market prices, and claimants pursuing novel duties against benchmark administrators face a steep path. Mercuria’s narrowing of its case in October 2026 removed its damages claim and its alternative methodology, leaving a stark invalidity remedy that the Baltic says would destabilize shipping markets. Mercuria does not allege bad faith, and the Baltic argues that lawful passage stayed possible and panelists kept submitting. The leading alternative is a split result: the court could find the Baltic fell short of its Benchmarks Regulation or contractual duties, given recorded doubts from brokers and staff and testimony about pressuring brokers, while refusing to unwind past assessments. Full invalidity remains a long shot. Settlement is unlikely now that trial is underway and Mercuria seeks a market-wide declaration rather than money. The expedited timetable and the court’s stated concern for the market favor judgment by early 2027, but a complex reserved judgment could slip past July 2027. No numbers changed from the previous forecast because the October 28, 2026, testimony was already reflected and the record shows no later development.
Invalidity remedy would unsettle eight months of priced contracts · Mercuria dropped damages and comparable-routes case, alleges no bad faith · Testimony about pressuring brokers supports a breach-only finding · Expedited trial points to judgment in early 2027 · Settlement unlikely once trial is underway
Generated automatically by Claude Opus 5.5 on Oct 29, 2026 from this case’s record on this site, and published without editorial review. The probabilities are the model’s judgment, not measured frequencies, and they are scored publicly as cases resolve. Not legal or investment advice. How the forecasts are made